Predictions: The Masters

One day, folks. One day until the biggest golf tournament of the year gets started at Augusta, with the 2010 edition of the Masters looking to be one of the most talked about events in golf history. Yesterday, I gave you my sleeper picks, and talked about some of the oh so juicy pairings for the first two rounds. But now, the time has come to make my official predictions. Let’s get it started.

The Sleeper

While I narrowed it down to three yesterday, it’s time to narrow it down to one today. Of those particular players (Ryan Moore, Nick Watney, and Adam Scott), I think I like Watney’s chances the best. In watching him play over the last year or so I guess, he just seems like one of those players that has everything you need to win a major championship. He’s only struggled in two tournaments this season, and has been in contention in pretty much all of the rest of them.

Again, Watney is long off the tee (288 yard average driving distance this season), which automatically makes him a threat this week. He’s not a particularly great scrambler, like say an Ian Poulter, but if he can keep it in the fairway on the majority of the holes, then I would expect some solid scores out of him. A 19th place finish at the Masters last year should also help him bring back some confidence and momentum from last season’s performance.

The Favorites

You can check out the official Vegas odds to see what their favorites are for this week, but here are my ten favorites entering the tournament:

Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Padraig Harrington, Lee Westwood, Anthony Kim, Retief Goosen, Paul Casey, Jim Furyk

Honorable Mention: Fred Couples, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan

So as you can see, my favorites don’t veer off too far from the Vegas favorites. Now it’s time to find a winner. For those who haven’t followed my predictions before, we do an elimination style format, where players will be eliminated one at a time until we reach the winner. Let’s begin.

Casey is a guy that always has to be respected in these big tournaments because of his ability to hammer it off the tee, and also because he’s a very good putter. Injuries have been a concern this year though, as he’s only played in four PGA Tour events this season. That worries me a little, so I can’t pick him to be consistent enough for four days to win the tournament.

Harrington might be the guy that I’m rooting for this week, which probably immediately takes him out of the running to win it. Seriously though, he’s played well this year with three Top 25 finishes this season, and it’s really hard to find many reasons to pick against him, especially after finishing T35 last year and T5 in 2008. I guess the only reason I have to pick against him is that, in my opinion, I just don’t think he’s going to win. Easy enough, right?

Kim was great last week at the Shell Houston Open, and even went as far as to say that I might pick him to win at Augusta. I’ve sort of toned down that excitement though for some reason. It’s probably the accuracy off the tee that worries me, because he was pretty awful with the driver last week. But he did what he had to do to win. He’ll have a good week, but a I don’t see a victory.

Furyk already has a win on the season, and has rebounded from what had to be considered a disappointing 2009. He’s played here plenty of times to ace the experience test, so that is of no concern at all. He’s accurate, and can putt with the best of them. But just like with Harrington, I like a few other guys’ chances better. I think Furyk is a lock to finish in the Top 10, however.

Westwood should probably win the award for “Player Predicted to Win Most Majors Aside from Tiger Woods,” as it just seems like that he’s picked to win every single major championship that he plays in. He’s a hot pick once again this week, and while he’s certainly got the game to do it, I don’t think he will. He’ll probably win one eventually when everyone stops picking him. He’ll play well though, and will likely be in contention the entire way.

Woods will not win. Uh oh. Someone sound the alarm. Yes, Tiger does not even make it into the final four in my predictions, but if there’s ever been a time where I’m confident that Tiger will not win, it’s this week. There’s going to be massive amounts of rust early on, and I don’t think he’ll be able to recover from that to win the tournament. He might make a run to get in contention on the weekend, but there are better choices to win this event.

The Final Four

Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson

Mickelson worries me. I know the guy can drive it a mile. But I also know that his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. As I heard golf writer John Hawkins say on the Golf Channel last night, Augusta is no longer a course that can be played from the trees. If Mickelson drives it like he’s been driving it recently, that’s where he’ll be playing it from. So I can’t pick him this week.

Goosen is a very popular pick to win this year, and why not? The guy has five, yes five, Top 5 finishes already this season. You think about that. He’s a shot or two away from having a couple wins, and not that many shots away from having five wins. He’s playing some of his best golf this season, and people need to take him seriously this week. Another top five finish may be tough, but like Furyk, I think he’s a lock for the Top 10.

The Finals

Ernie Els vs. Steve Stricker

Well here we are. The final two. Els already has two wins this season on tour, while Stricker has one himself. Els is proving that he’s back to playing some of his best golf again, while Stricker has been the model of consistency for a while not. So who picks up the win?

Some will point to the fact that Ernie has missed his last three cuts at Augusta, and that’s a fair point. But he’s different this year, and has proven that by winning twice already. When someone needed to step up in Tiger’s absence, he did, and may have to be considered the second best player in the world right now.

But if there’s a player that I hate picking against the most behind Tiger, it’s Stricker. You always expect him to step up and play best when it matters most, and I fully expect him to do that this week. The 43 year-old is due for a major championship.

Stricker rides his excellent putting into a green jacket on Sunday.