The Open Championship Notebook: Major Trend and Favorites

Has it been four years? Honestly? For the last 15 majors, we have seen 15 different winners. That’s telling under (at least) two accounts.

One, it displays exactly how difficult it is to win a major. Two, it tells us that the fields are tighter-knit in talent. At least toward the top of any entry list. In any given major, you can logically find no less than ten players that have realistic chances on winning.

Will Woods and LaCava be all smiles after this weekend? (Kyle Terada - US PRESSWIRE)

There’s not a third? Well, not like there used to be. I would say it’s not even close to that days when it was…

Tiger against the field?  Remember those days?  Not so much anymore, but Woods is “installed” as the favorite for this week’s Open Championship. And honestly, I’m not seeing it. In fact, I believe picking one favorite is a disservice (and just plain difficult) to the other payers.

Proof? Listen to me on last night’s Kickin’ It with Keeler. Forward to the last half hour.

And I am still having issues in taking Luke Donald. Why do I feel like there is seriously no clear-cut favorite?

Because there isn’t. I don’t care that pregame.com has a consensus that Woods is at 8:1. When Tiger wins, he struggles the following tournament.

  • Arnold Palmer Invitational – WIN
  • The Masters – T40
  • The Memorial – WIN
  • U.S. Open – T21
  • AT&T National – WIN
  • The Greenbrier Classic – MC

Granted, two of the three tournaments after a win did come at majors, but Tiger usually doesn’t play in a tourney the week prior to a major. He hasn’t this year either.  But this could be the week where Woods snags a win.  In doing so, he may silence some.

I look and see that Rory McIlroy is second favorite at 11:1, and I am becoming more confused and befuddled by the moment. Rors hasn’t exactly performed well as of late. After losing in a playoff at the Wells Fargo Championship (won by Rickie Fowler), McIlroy has plodded his way to, get these results…

  • The Players – MC
  • BMW PGA Championship – MC
  • The Memorial – MC
  • FedEx St. Jude Classic – T7
  • U.S. Open – MC
  • The Irish Open – T10

Ah, Lee Westwood is 12:1.  Hasn’t won a major over the past four years.  That looks all right…except for one thing.  Westwood doesn’t own a major win.  But that’s okay, too.  Only three of the last 15 major winners even own a major win (Padraig Harrington, Angel Cabrera and Phil Mickelson).   Odds look good there.

That’s it!  It’s Westwood like Ricky said last night!

Hold on.  Next is my pick, Donald at 15:1.

If you’re thinking I don’t know how odds work, you would be right and wrong. I understand enough to lose money…if I were to bet.

So…who ya got?

Who is your favorite to win the Open Championship?

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Topics: Golf, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, The Open Championship, Tiger Woods

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