Who’s Hot & Who’s Not at the US Women’s Open?

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July 8, 2012; Kohler, WI, USA; A happy USGA U.S. Womens Open winner Na Yeon Choi holds her trophy during ceremonies at Blackwolf Run. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

A star-studded field of 156 players at the US Women’s Open will tee up on Thursday at the S Golf Club in Southampton, NY.  They will all have their eyes on that huge, stunning trophy Na Yeon Choi‘s claimed last year.  On paper, they’re about equal and have a more or less even chance to lay claim to “the best of the best” championship.  But by the end of 72 holes (or a playoff, if it comes to that) one of them will have played better than the others.

One of them won’t make as many mistakes, will have faster recovery from the bad shots, will wield her putter like a laser, will devise creative solutions to make impossible shots.  And it won’t necessarily be the one who seems to have the best chance before the first tee shots are fired, or the one in the lead at the end of the 1st, or 2nd, or even 3rd round.  72 holes is a lot of golf.  It takes mental as well as physical stamina to play 72 holes in the highly charged world of the US Women’s Open.

It may boil down to who’s hot and who’s not for this long haul tournament.  Let’s take a look at the defending champion and past champs who are entered: Na Yeon Choi (2012), Paula Creamer (2010), Eun-Hee Ji (2009), Cristie Kerr (2007), Birdie Kim (2005), Se Ri Pak (1998), Inbee Park (2008), So Yeon Ryu (2011) and Karrie Webb (2000, 2001).

Can Choi (South Korea) make it two in a row?  The #4 Rolex ranked player in the world has 5 top-10 finishes this year but no wins.  She’s playing very well, but I don’t think she’s hot.  However, keep an eye on her.  With some early birdies Choi could heat up fast.

Can Creamer (USA)  claim a 2nd win? With 3 top-10 finishes and no wins, Creamer doesn’t seem to be at the top of her game right now.   She’s warm but not hot.  It’s going to take more birdies than pars to take home this trophy and Creamer has more pars than birdies on her recent tournament cards.

Kerr (USA) is another matter.  She has a win and 2 top-10 finishes.  She has a good, even a great game in her bag.  Can she pull it out and put it to work?  Kerr may not be hot going in, but I sense that she could get hot fast.  I’m not counting her out.

Park (South Korea) is hot.  No question about that.  The #1 ranked woman golfer in the world would like to claim the Open trophy and a 6th win for the season.  But Park’s recent wins and stellar golf may work against her.  Can she recharge her mental and physical batteries?  Will she have enough steam to roll through 72 holes against the toughest golf her competitors can throw at her?  To be sure, Park’s going to be the one to beat.

Both Ryu (South Korea) and Webb (Australia) have games in their bags that could beat Park if she stumbles.  At the #5 slot in the Rolex Rankings, Ryu has 5 top-10 finishes this year and gave Park a good challenge at the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship.  She could do it again.  Webb has a win and 4 top-10 finishes and is ranked 8th in by Rolex.   They both know what it feels like to win the Open and they’ll both be ready to make a move at the first opportunity.

It’s rare that an amateur claims the Women’s Open trophy, even though amateurs routinely compete in the Open.  But keep an eye on Lydia Ko (amateur, New Zealand).  She beat Park at the 2012 Canadian Women’s Open and her game is brilliant.  The pressure of playing from slightly behind in the later rounds seems to sharpen her game.  I sense her winning combination of technical focus and mental serenity as she works her way from the tee box to the cup.  Ko is definitely hot.

Ji, Kim and Pak (all South Korea), past open winners with no wins or top-10 finishes this year, don’t appear to be competitive.  For them, winning the Women’s Open may have been the peak of their professional golf careers.  But their past wins tell a cautionary tale about the Women’s Open:  the winner won’t necessarily be hot coming in to the tournament.  Hot games can come out of nowhere!