Predictions: The 2009 PGA Championship

We’re getting closer and closer to the year’s final major, as the PGA Championship kicks off tomorrow morning at Hazeltine.

And you know what that means: it’s time for predictions!

Last week’s predictions were good for the most part, but hey, that’s what happens when you pick the best player in the world to win. You’re right more often than not.

But without further ado, here are the 2009 PGA Championship predictions!

The Underdog

I posted my three sleeper picks yesterday, but I’m going to go with a different guy in this particular spot. Ross Fisher is a guy that’s due for a breakthrough into major championship stardom.

He’s played well in every major this season (5th at the U.S. Open, T13-British Open, T30-Masters), and this would be a great spot for him to add to the first major winners this year.

He’s got all the tools of doing so, and with Hazeltine being such a long golf course, he has to use his accuracy to take advantage. I know this line is repetitive, but if he can position himself well with his tee shot and keep it in the fairway, I really like his chances to at least make a run at the top of the leaderboard.

The Favorites

Here is who I believe to be the favorites (and not necessarily the same as those in Vegas): Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington, Stewart Cink, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Lee Westwood, Retief Goosen, and Kenny Perry. Honorable mention: Jim Furyk and Sergio Garcia.

We’ll go elimination style once again, until we reach the winner.

Elimination #1 – I’m all for a great story. I really am. But at this point in time, I just can’t see Mickelson winning this tournament. With all the things that are going on in his life, things that are much bigger than the game of golf, I just don’t think he’s at a high point in his game right now. With it being a major championship, I still expect him to contend, and maybe even get a top ten finish. I just can’t see him winning though.

Elimination #2 – It seems like every time a major tournament comes around, we’re always talking about Westwood. He was in the hunt at the U.S. Open last year. He was in the hunt at the British Open this year. But when is he finally going to close the deal and win one of these? My answer: Not this week. He’s playing decent golf right now, as he finished ninth at the Bridgestone, but I think his putting gives him trouble this week, and ultimately puts him out of contention.

Elimination #3 – Goosen hits the ball a long way, which will help him at a golf course such as Hazeltine, as they seem to be extending the course a few yards every 15 minutes or so. With that being said, it’s one thing to hit the ball a long way, and another thing to hit it along way with accuracy. While he’s been playing well of late, he’s going to need his driving accuracy to be spot-on this week if he wants to have a chance to win. I think he does play well this week, but doesn’t find himself at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Elimination #4 – Aside from Tiger, Stricker may be the hottest player on tour right now. He’s been playing extremely well this season, and may be playing the best golf of his career. I honestly can’t find many reasons at all not to pick this guy to win this championship. I’ll admit it right now: it would not surprise me one bit to see him win this tournament. However, I see four other guys with a better chance than him. Sorry Steve, I just can’t do it.

The Final Four – Woods, Cink, Harrington, Perry

Elimination #5 – At this point in predictions, I’m starting to really debate as to who to eliminate next. You may be thinking “but we know who you’re going to pick to win!” I’m not so sure just yet. But here, we will go with Harrington. He played outstanding at Firestone last week, and went head-to-head with Tiger for nearly the entire day, except for one hole that pretty much cost him the tournament (no, we won’t bring up that timing stuff).

The rest of the year has been pretty bad though, and maybe last week was a one time thing. I don’t think it was, and I expect a top five finish out of Paddy this week.

Elimination #6 – I’m a big fan of confidence on the golf course. And if there’s one guy whose confidence is riding high, it’s Cink. We all wondered how he would play coming off several week layoff after the British, and he hasn’t missed a beat since he’s came back. Mark it down: this guy is going to contend this week. He will lead this tournament at some point in time. He’s going for back-to-back major wins, and he’ll be playing his best. But, there will be two guys playing better.

The Finals – Woods vs. Perry

I keep telling myself, this should be a no-brainer. Somehow though, I can’t get that to register in my mind.

There’s no doubt Tiger Woods is the greatest player in the world and is playing better than anyone right now. This should be a no-brainer.

And the last time Tiger played a PGA Championship at Hazeltine in 2002, he lost to Rich Beem. You think he’ll remember that? You bet he will. Again, this should be a no-brainer.

The best golfer on any planet (as far as we know) against a 49 year old who had a collapse down the stretch at the Masters earlier this year. This should be a no-brainer.

And well, it is.

Which is why Kenny Perry will be your 2009 PGA Championship winner.

Even when all the evidence points towards one player, sometimes you’ve just gotta make a gut pick and go with it.

My gut says Perry redeems himself, and wins his first major championship.

Let me hear your predictions! Feel free to comment!