Predictions: HP Byron Nelson Championship

After almost picking up a nice win on predictions last week, with my choice of Charley Hoffman as the winner (had trouble on the final few holes), I enter this week’s predictions with confidence. So let us bring on the HP Byron Nelson Championship, and let’s see if we can find a winner for this week’s event in Dallas.

The Sleeper

For this week’s sleeper pick, I’m gonna take Ricky Barnes. Barnes is a long shot according to the odds-makers, but I think that he seriously has a shot at winning this week.

He’s already got three Top 10’s on the season, and although he missed the cut at the PLAYERS, he’s still got a chance to make a run at the top of the leaderboard this week. Barnes’ confidence is one of the strengths of his game, and after a T22 finish at the Quail Hollow Championship, I don’t think he’ll let one missed cut deter him from playing some good golf this week.

If he can be accurate with the driver, and get some nice consistency going with that early on, he’s going to play himself into contention on the weekend.

The Favorites

Here are the Vegas odds for the week, and my favorites don’t stray too far from those:

Hunter Mahan, Sean O’Hair, Dustin Johnson, Y.E. Yang, Charley Hoffman, Heath Slocum, Ben Crane, and J.B. Holmes

Honorable Mention: Justin Leonard, Scott Verplank, and Kenny Perry

Elimination style to the finish as usual, so let us begin!

O’Hair finished T22 at the PLAYERS (which it seemed like everyone did), and has five Top 25’s this season. He still has his struggles at times with the putter, which leads me to lean towards others this week as possible winners. But he’ll play well, and should easily wrap up another Top 25 finish.

Yang played well at the Masters a month ago, and had a solid four days at the PLAYERS, finishing T34. He’s got all the ingredients for the win this week, and he’s the one I’m the most nervous about in terms of not picking him. If there’s a guy that could make me look stupid this week, it’s Yang.

Crane has already got a win on the season, and six Top 25’s in 11 starts on tour this year. He was in the hunt at TPC Sawgrass, and will look to carry some of that momentum into Dallas. He’s in the top ten in driving accuracy, which means he’s going to give himself a shot at victory by putting the ball in the fairway. If he rides a hot putter the first few days, he might just be your winner. But I’m looking elsewhere for my winner.

Johnson digs the long ball, and it’s obvious with his 300 yard+ driving average, which means he’s always got a shot at producing low scores. He’s been hovering around the 30’s in terms of where he’s finished in his last several tournaments, but could take a significant leap up this week. I predict a Top 10 for him, but not a victory.

The Final Four

Hunter Mahan, Charley Hoffman, Heath Slocum, J.B. Holmes

Slocum tied for fourth at the PLAYERS, so he’s playing some of his best golf as he enters this week. He’s very accurate with the driver, and if he can find a flow with the putter, look out. I think he plays well this week, but comes up short of a victory.

Hoffman was my pick last week, but I was seriously considering taking him again this week. He seems to be the kind of player that rides the momentum from week to week, so when he’s on, he can beat anybody. And after his Top 25 at both the PLAYERS and at the Valero Texas Open, he’s going to play well this week. But sorry Charley, I’m going with someone else to hoist the trophy on Sunday.

The Finals

Hunter Mahan vs. J.B. Holmes

We’ve reached the final two, and this is never an easy decision when we get to this point. Mahan is the best player in terms of world ranking this week, but we know that doesn’t always equal victory for the favorites. Holmes has found a rhythm as of late, and will almost certainly play well this week.

Mahan is pretty much the obvious choice here in my opinion, and there’s really no compelling reason I can find to pick against him. Which, of course, means that I have to pick against him. If there’s anything I’ve learned from my predictions, it’s that when all signs point towards one player, run as far away as you can. Ok, well, maybe not too far. But at least a few feet or so.

And that means I must pick someone else. And I’m doing so with confidence.

Holmes’ driving accuracy (52%) scares me a WHOLE lot, but the man can putt. He’s on the upswing, and he continues that trend this week.

Holmes is your winner in Dallas.