Predictions: The Memorial Tournament

Well we’ve got a big golf tournament taking place this week, as the Memorial Tournament gets going in Columbus, with a lot of big names competing in the event. But of course, there is one name that stands above the rest, as Tiger Woods makes his return to the tour this week, after having to withdraw from the event at Quail Hollow with a neck injury. Can Tiger win in his first week back? Or will someone else step up and take some momentum into Pebble Beach in two weeks? Let’s find out.

The Sleeper

For some reason, I’ve got a good feeling about Mike Weir this week. Weir only has two Top 25’s this season in nine made cuts, but when he gets rolling early in a tournament, his putting usually fuels him to a great finish on the weekend. I think he’s due for a big tournament, and I could definitely see him in contention with Tiger and Phil on Sunday. He’ll let his putter do the work this week, and I think he’s got a great shot to make a run to the top of the leaderboard.

The Favorites

Here’s the favorites according to the oddsmakers in Vegas. And here’s my favorites: Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, K.J. Choi, Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson, Tim Clark, Ernie Els.

Honorable Mention: Kenny Perry, Robert Allenby, Hunter Mahan, Adam Scott, and Steve Stricker.

After last week’s choice of Phil Mickelson, you may not intend to read any further than this. But c’mon, who really thought Phil would miss the cut? Give me another chance.

Elimination style to the finish as usual!

Clark has been in the favorites section more as of late after his victory at the PLAYERS. There’s no doubt that he’s playing some of the best golf of his career right now, and I don’t put much stock in his T56 finish at Colonial last week. He had taken several weeks off after the win, so this is probably the week his game gets to flowing again. I’d expect at least a Top 25 from him this week.

Els really hasn’t made much noise as of late, after picking up his second win of the season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the end of March. But, he did finish tied for 3rd at the Valero Texas Open a few weeks ago, and could be ready to break out once again and pick up a victory. With the US and British Opens coming up in the near future, Els is sure to be a contender, and this week would be another great opportunity to pick up yet another win, or at least be in contention. I think he’s in the Top 10, but he won’t get the win.

Furyk is usually someone that I want to pick week in and week out, but for some reason, I never usually do. However, he’s had tons of success at this event in the past, and it would be dumb to think that he won’t have it once again this week. Just like Mickelson did last week, he missed the cut. Which of course means that there’s no way that he does again this quickly. He’ll play well, and will likely find himself in the mix on the weekend. But, I’m not picking him to win it.

McIlroy has already proven once this year that he can win a tournament where the big two are participating, and he’ll have a chance to do that again at the Memorial. I love the way his game is progressing, and he would love nothing more than to pick up another tour win before the two upcoming majors in the next two months. This would be a perfect time to pick up some momentum, and I’d say he has a great shot at being in contention on the weekend. A win, though? Sorry, but I’m picking someone else.

The Final Four

Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Zach Johnson, K.J. Choi

Mickelson was my pick last week, and perhaps I’m penalizing him for making me look silly by not picking him this week. But, there is simply no chance that Mickelson has another bad week this week, and with Tiger back in the fray, you know that Phil is going to be at his best. I don’t think last week was a huge deal in terms of the current state of his game, but it may a little too much for him to correct in one week. I’d say he’ll take a Top 10 finish this week, if that means his game is getting right again as we head into the U.S. Open in two weeks.

Woods is going out too? Yep, that’s correct. You all were probably expecting a Tiger vs. Phil showdown in my predictions for the week, but I’m not going that route. Of course, picking against the two best players in the world may not be the smartest thing to do as a golf writer, but that’s where we’re headed this week. Phil showed last week that his game had suffered a little after a short layoff, so what does that mean for Tiger after a somewhat long layoff? Yes, Tiger did come back with a 4th-place finish at Augusta after his ridiculously long absence from the tour, but I think this will be a little different. The neck is surely better, or he wouldn’t be playing, but I think it may take a week to get completely back on track. I’d say Tiger is in the mix on the weekend, but I’m not predicting a victory for him.

The Finals

Zach Johnson vs. K.J. Choi

Well, well, well. We eliminate the big boys in the final four, and now that brings us to Johnson and Choi for the win this week. Perhaps it wouldn’t be very smart to pick Johnson to win back-to-back tournaments, but why not? After all, he did shoot a 64 in each of his final two rounds at Colonial, and is clearly playing confident golf right now.

Meanwhile, Choi racked up his seventh Top 25 of 2010 last week, and just keeps on playing consistent golf week in and week out. His lowest finish of the year in the 12 events that he’s played? A tie for 41st at the Verizon Heritage.

There’s really not a bad pick here, as I could go with Johnson and the week to week momentum, or I could go with Choi with pretty much half a year of momentum.

I think it’s asking too much for Johnson to come out and play lights out this week, but I do expect a good finish from him. So yes, that leaves us with my pick for the week.

Choi finally gets his first win of the year on tour at Memorial.