U.S. Open 2011 Preview and Predictions
A little extra buzz courses through the golf world this week as the world’s elite make their second stop on the PGA Tour major circuit, the U.S. Open. The summer startup returns this year to the Blue Course at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md., the first time since Ernie Els captured his second U.S. Open title 14 years ago. Absent Tiger Woods, the field will ready itself for battle with a 7,300-yard golfing compound that, incidentally, doubled as a military training ground during WWII.
Before surveying the combatants, let’s briefly talk about our conspicuous AWOL, Tiger Woods, who will miss the U.S. Open for the first time in 17 years. Yes, the man who willed his way through an 18-hole playoff sporting a shattered knee to claim the 2008 championship will be sidelined, again, by injury. Sunday’s coming and going will signify more than another lost tournament; it will be a full three years since Tiger Woods has won a major championship.
I think it’s worth it to digress for a moment, pinch ourselves and realize that we could be in the midst of one of the most cataclysmic disappointments not just in golf, but sports history. Three years ago his feat to win a record-tying 18th major seemed a foregone conclusion. Today the odds-makers (and even golf immortals like Arnold Palmer) are casting doubts on a banged-up, 35-year-old Woods to win another major, let alone tournament. Of course only time will tell—he may have another decade or more of solid play left in the tank. Yet something about seeing a No. 15 ranking next to his name seems unnatural for the world’s perennial No. 1.
But back to Bethesda. Which storylines are most intriguing? Let’s start with some of the playful pairings the event organizers have handed us this year.
First and foremost I’ll be watching Phil Mickelson plod alongside a couple of swaggering 20-somethings, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson (and maybe he can teach one how to close out a major). Afternoon crowds may catch a glimpse of Team Italy (Francesco Molinari, Matteo Manassero, Edoardo Molinari), Team Spain (Miguel Angel Jimenez, Sergio Garcia, Alvaro Quiros), or Team Masters (Charl Schwartzel, Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson). You also have to love how they give us not one (Steve Stricker, Retief Goosen, David Toms), but two (Ernie Els, Davis Love III, Jim Furyk) 40 and over clubs. Or, if all else fails, you can find your way to the European Luminaries—Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, and Martin Kaymer—teeing off promptly at 8:06 a.m., or 1:06 p.m. London time.
Now onto my predictions. Overall, I think keeping the ball in the fairway will be at a premium this weekend. Though the rough is said to be less lush than at other Opens, it’s still going to cause headaches. But an even bigger issue might be the enormous trees that coat many of the narrow fairways. Having a clear, clean lie might be the only way to score—or even make par—at many of the longer par 4’s.
Here are the five I’m going with:
Martin Kaymer
Could we witness a second straight Sunday of German domination? Sure would make a sweet storyline, but that’s not the only reason I’m picking him. Kaymer is simply due for a strong outing after coming out sluggish for much of 2011 (including a missed cut at The Masters). He’s still the world’s No. 3 ranked golfer and has shown he has the poise and game to close out a major tournament. Go on, Martin, make comrade Dirk proud.
Matt Kuchar
There may be no more consistent player on tour right now than Big Kuch. He’s made the cut in all 14 tournaments he’s played in this year and has come on strong with a T2 finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. He’s also a steady driver of the golf ball, sitting at 16th in fairways hit, and has found a knack for making timely putts in clutch situations. Kuchar deserves to have his first win of the year be a major championship.
K.J. Choi
K.J. “Tank” Choi is second on the money list this season following the biggest win of his career at The Players Championship in May. Normally I wouldn’t like to pick a Players victor to win a major (see: Sergio Garcio, Adam Scott), but K.J. seems to never let nerves rattle him. He’s also tasted Congressional success before at the 2007 AT&T National. His experience, demeanor, and peaking play all bode well for his chances at a strong showing.
Luke Donald
As one of Donald’s biggest fans, I’ll admit this pick is more hopeful than rational. Despite his at-times untouchable play this season, Luke has still yet to clinch a stroke-play victory in the U.S. in more than five years. I’m cheering for him to put to rest the doubts about his inability to close in big spots (e.g. the Heritage earlier this year). His biggest weapon this week will be his driving. Typically a weak spot, this season the world’s No. 1 ranks 13th overall in driving accuracy.
Adam Scott
Scott could be one of the most seasoned players out there never to win a major. And some still think he never will. Personally I think he has it in him somewhere, he just has yet to pull it all together at the right time. He’s also remembering the sting of a 2nd-place finish at the Masters that at one point seemed like his to lose. His play in 2011 has been spotty to be sure, but I think he’ll regain focus this week on another big stage. And hey, I’m always a sucker for a good storyline. Maybe he can summon some of that old U.S. Open magic having none other than Stevie Williams on the bag.
And the winner is … Matt Kuchar