Sunday Scenarios at the CME Group Tour Championship

Aug 17, 2014; Pittsford, NY, USA; Fans watch the action on the 9th green during the final round of the Wegman

It’s looking more and more like there’s going to be a four-way battle for the top of the CME Group Tour Championship leaderboard on Sunday, and the outcome of the year-long Race to the CME Globe and the fabled million dollar bonus is equally uncertain. I’m thinking that while Stacy Lewis probably had a lock on the Rolex Player of the Year and the Vare Trophy, she has a less certain future in the million dollar Race, and the Tour Championship is going to somebody else.

Julieta Granada

Julieta Granada has played a steady game for three rounds and it’s kept her at the top of the leaderboard. One of the shortest hitters on the Tour, Granada’s more than compensated for her distance disadvantage by mastering her layups and approaches and avoiding Tiburón’s nasty waste areas and hazards.

Although Granada’s only win came at the LPGA Playoffs in 2006, her rookie year, she’s not an unlikely leader at the CME Group Tour Championship. Granada’s ranked 48th by Rolex and she’s recorded seven top-10 finishes this year. She’s ranked 3rd on the Tour in driving accuracy, hitting 82% of the fairways off the tee (Mo Martin leads in driving accuracy, hitting 86% of the fairways), and she’s averaged 29.31 putts per round this season (right between Inbee Park, who’s averaged 28.98 putts per round this season, and Stacy Lewis, who’s averaged 29.98). By her performance stats, Granada’s very competitive.

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Granada, however, doesn’t have much of an edge going into the final round Sunday. Morgan Pressel, Carlota Ciganda and Sandra Gal are all within striking distance. Ciganda was sharing the lead with Granada at the start of the third round and will start the final round sharing 2nd place with Pressel, who came roaring up the leaderboard after a slow first round start, and will go into Sunday trailing Granada by one shot. Gal has been playing steady golf and pushing Granada since the opening round. She’ll start Sunday trailing by two shots, alone in 4th place.

Michelle Wie, who still has a shot at both the million dollar bonus and the Tour Championship, is sharing 7th place with Angela Stanford at -5. She’ll start the final round with a four stroke deficit.

Wie’s made some great shots — her 2nd round eagle was breathtaking — and she’s had some meltdowns. If she can put her A game to work, she might be able to play past the competition and catch Granada.

Race to the CME Globe

Stacy Lewis. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Stacy Lewis will start Sunday at 3-under par and sharing the 10th slot on the board. But Lewis is the projected leader in the Race to the CME Globe with Lydia Ko trailing her by 50 points.

What would it take for Ko to overtake Lewis in the Race? Ko would need to finish the Tour Championship inside the top three (she’s starting Sunday at six-under par and in a tie for 5th place) and Lewis would need to finish outside the top six.

In the event of a win by Michelle Wie or So Yeon Ryu, Lewis would need to finish the Tour Championship in 2nd or 3rd to hold on to her Race to the CME Globe lead.

And Inbee Park? Park is struggling with her putter and, at 2-over par, isn’t a likely factor in this complicated set of end-game calculations.

Sunday Schedule

Caroline Hedwall, Jenny Shin and Chella Choi lead off the final round Sunday morning at 8:40am. The final group, Julieta Granada, Carlota Ciganda and Morgan Pressel, tees off at 10:30am.

Golf Channel coverage picks up the final round in progress at 1:30pm. All times are ET.

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