2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Picks

By Danny Norris | Jan 26, 2015

This is a huge tournament this week in Scottsdale, Arizona. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is always one of the more exciting tournaments on the PGA Tour. The TPC Scottsdale is a great course that gives you a little bit of everything and plus it comes with the most exciting hole in golf.

This year, though, things are kicked up a notch. The daily fantasy game, DraftKings, is offering some big money this week, Tiger Woods is making his 2015 debut, and then you have the Super Bowl taking place in Glendale, Arizona. You add all that up and you have a recipe for a festive atmosphere and some exciting action this week.

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If you’ve been following and reading my fantasy sleeper pick articles you’ll notice this one isn’t all that different from the past couple of weeks. The money on some of the respective golfers hasn’t changed all that much. Which is kind of interesting considering the fact that they have been playing well.

So, as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. With that said let’s get in-depth and talk about the Waste Management Phoenix Open fantasy sleeper picks.

Pat Perez: I mentioned last week that Pat Perez would be someone worth taking a look at, and if you took him, he did great. Perez performed well, made the cut, and finished in the top 30. So, before I started looking into the prices this week, I assumed Perez wouldn’t be a cheap pick. But, low and behold he is. In fact, he is a very cheap pick.

As we talked about last week towards the second half of last year, Perez was in a major slump. He wasn’t performing well at all and after two events into this year’s wraparound season that continued. He missed the cuts at the Frys.com Open, and Shriners Open.

Feb 1, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; A general view of the 16th hole after the completion of the third round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Since then, though, Perez has made the cut in four straight tournaments including a T-17 at the Sony Open, and a T-30 last week at the Humana Challenge. Perez’ game is clearly coming back and he’s coming home to very familiar territory in the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Pat Perez was born and raised in Phoenix, Arizona, he went to school at Arizona State, and when he has played here at TPC Scottsdale, he’s played extremely well.

Last year, Perez was in contention, but three straight bogeys one the back nine dropped him into an 11th place finish. In 2013, he was DQ’d for signing the wrong scorecard, but from there a T-19 in 2012, T-22 in 2011, T-24 in 2010, T-48 in 2009, and T-43 in 2008.

Perez has been a machine making cuts and typically finishing inside the top 25. Perez is an extremely cheap pick, tons of value, and is pretty much a “must have” in your lineup this week.

Jason Kokrak– Jason Kokrak keeps making cuts, keeps playing quality golf, and keeps being undervalued. It’s kind of perplexing as to why he’s not a more expensive golfer.

Granted, the field this week is pretty deep, but there are a number of golfers more expensive than him that probably shouldn’t be. Nevertheless, as I said a couple of weeks ago, I don’t care about the why. He just is and I’m happy about that because it makes creating a lineup this week easier.

Kokrak has made the cut in six of seven tournaments including his last five. Last week, Kokrak finished T-48 at Humana, and two weeks ago finished T-17 at the Sony Open.

Kokrak has a nice groove going and he’s coming to a tournament where his game fits the course. While his course history, on paper, doesn’t say that – as he’s missed two out of three cuts here at the Phoenix Open – last year’s T-15 is more in line with how I think he’ll perform over the next few years at TPC Scottsdale.

TPC Scottsdale is a bombers course. If you can knock it 300 plus yards, you have a huge advantage. If you spray it a little bit, it’s okay because the fairways are pretty forgiving. That’s why Bubba Watson loves playing here.

The way I look at Kokrak’s course history right now, is that it is an advantage. Some folks will look at the T-15 last year and the following two years with missed cuts and might shy away thinking Kokrak is too much of a risk. But, his game fits here. Kokrak has that upside and I’m very confident in having him on my team this week.

May 3, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; J.B. Holmes tees off on the fourteenth hole during the third round of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

J.B. Holmes– It’s all about the golfers that can bomb it. That’s the theme this week. Holmes fits the profile. He’s got a very solid course history that includes a win in 2008. Going back to 2008, Holmes has missed only two cuts. One was following his win, and the other was in 2013 when he had a lot problems going on.

Other than that, he’s made the cut and has often been pretty solid. In 2010, he finished T-43, in 2011: T-5, 2012 , T-45, and last year T-58 in which he was still bouncing back from a lot of those injuries he was dealing with.

While his game fits here in Scottsdale, I am a bit concerned with how he is currently performing. He’s technically made the cut in three of four tournaments, but in the three tournaments he made the cut in there was no cut, and if there was a cut he wouldn’t have made it.

In the fourteen rounds he has played so far in this wraparound season, he only has two rounds in the 60’s. That’s a major concern. If you shoot a 71-71 this week, you are packing your bags. You can’t afford to shoot in the 70’s this week.

So, I’m not 100% on board with Holmes this week. He’s not in the form you’d like him to be in, at the moment, but if you are looking for that last golfer to fill out your team, he’s not a bad bet considering his price tag. Coming to a familiar place in Phoenix may be the thing that Holmes needs.

Matt Jones: Matt Jones is an Australian who went to school at Arizona State. Last year, Jones was in contention to win, but a 72-73 weekend ended those hopes at winning, but he still ended up finishing T-12. Not bad after a below average weekend.

It’s kind of funny, when you look at his results leading up to the Phoenix Open last year, it’s pretty reminiscent to what he’s doing this year. He’s making the cut, and quietly having quality finishes. Another top 12 finish this year and that will be a fantastic pick. And it may happen.

Heading into this week I feel that Jones is very quietly under-the-radar. Someone to keep an eye on this week.

Bo Van Pelt: Oh, man, I swung and missed on Bo Van Pelt last week. That was disappointing. For what it’s worth, Bo Van Pelt is probably the best cheapest pick this week. If you really want to add Watson, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler on your team, hey, Van Pelt is probably the best pick down there.

The worry last week was that maybe Van Pelt was rusty considering the fact that he hadn’t golfed competitively in two months. So, maybe he knocked the rust off and will bounce back this week.

Bo Van Pelt has a solid enough history at the Phoenix Open, from 2011 to 2013 he was great finishing T-18, T-8, and T-16.

Jun 12, 2014; Pinehurst, NC, USA; Matt Every tees off on the 2nd hole during the first round of the 2014 U.S. Open golf tournament at Pinehurst Resort Country Club – #2 Course. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Every: Matt Every is the kind of pick where I’ll mention him in passing and if he does great, I’ll bring it up like, “Hey, yeah, I thought Every might do well here.” and if he doesn’t, well, I’ll kind of just sweep it under the rug like it never happened.

That’s how I’m treating Every this week. He’ll probably be on one team this week, but that’s about it. Every hasn’t played all that well since he won at Bay Hill last year, but he does have a surprisingly strong history here at the Phoenix Open.

Last year, Every finished T-37, in 2013: T-9, and in 2010: T-8. His game doesn’t exactly scream success at a course like TPC Scottsdale, but the proof is in the pudding. He’s doing something right when he comes to Arizona. So, Every might be worth taking a flyer on.