Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Picks

Golf is an extremely tough sport to handicap and predict. Every week you just never know who is going to surprise and compete for a win. Take for example last week, I mentioned J.B. Holmes as a sleeper pick.

Heading into the Farmers Insurance Open, Holmes wasn’t in great form, but his game fit Torrey Pines, and he had a pretty solid history. Low and behold, Holmes was in a playoff and almost won.

Of the games I played on DraftKings last week only around 1.5-3% had Holmes on their teams and if you took him, more than likely, you made some money.

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On the flip side, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama were favorites heading into Torrey Pines, but they ended up missing the cut. Another extremely cheap pick was Scott Stallings who, once again, almost won at Torrey Pines. Leading up to the Farmers Insurance Open you would have dismissed his chances even though he was the defending champion.

It just goes to show that taking some extreme risks can pay off and there are no guarantees taking chalk. It happens just about every week on the PGA Tour. Don’t be afraid to go with your gut and take some chances, they may eventually pay off.

Anyway, enough about that, let’s talk about this coming week on the PGA Tour. This week, it is the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am which will be played on three courses: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula.

The formula to winning the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is converting birdies on the par-3’s, hitting greens, and putting well (which you can say just about every week). If you are in the top 25 in these categories you have a great shot at winning.

Spyglass Hill is typically the harder of the three courses. So keep that in mind when picking golfers and when playing the fantasy games where you can sub out golfers after each round.

With that said, here are my AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am fantasy sleeper picks:

Aaron Baddeley– Talk about an overreaction. Aaron Baddeley misses the cut last week and all of a sudden his price plummets? Hmm, okay. It doesn’t make sense, but, hey, I’m not complaining. Baddeley is a must have in your lineup this week. His price doesn’t accurately reflect how he’s playing currently and how he has played at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.

Baddeley hasn’t missed a cut at Pebble Beach since 2010 and in that time he has finished T-6, 4th, T-12, and last year T-56 after he shot a final round 78. Plus, Baddeley has been really good to start the season. Aside from last week, he had made the cut in five straight tournaments and his worse finish was T-48.

Kevin Streelman– Kevin Streelman has played some quality golf this year and has played some quality golf over the years at the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.

Since missing the cut at the Frys.com Open to open the season, Streelman hasn’t missed a cut since. He has played in seven tournaments and has made the cut in all seven, including a 2nd place at the Shriners Open, T-26 at the CIMB Classic, and in his most recent tournament he finished T-30 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Kevin Chappell– Unfortunately, the risk of taking Kevin Chappell didn’t pay off last week. I’m taking another shot at Chappell again this week and if he doesn’t pay off, well, I’ll be tripling down on him next week because that’s the tournament where he should be an extremely valuable pick.

Torrey Pines is a really tough golf course and it played extremely tough last week. So, that’s a mulligan really. This week he is coming to a tournament where he has had some success making the cut in three of the last four tournaments, including a T-35 last year.

Also, Chappell’s problem so far has been off the tee. At this particular tournament, hitting the fairway isn’t as dyer as it was last week. His putting has been good, and he’s been solid enough hitting greens. If he plays like he has been this year, he should make the cut and finish in the top 35 or so.

Jan 29, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; PGA golfer James Hahn , right, fist bumps his caddie after sinking a shot on the second green during the first round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Mandatory Credit: David Kadlubowski-Arizona Republic via USA TODAY Sports

James Hahn– James Hahn has quietly played some quality golf. Since missing the cut at the first two tournaments of the year, Hahn has bounced back by making the cut in his last six of seven tournaments, and hasn’t missed the cut in four straight tournaments.

Hahn has finished T-26 at the Sony Open, T-20 at the Humana Challenge, T-59 at the Phoenix Open, and T-41 last week at Torrey Pines.

Hahn has played well here at Pebble Beach as well. In 2013, Hahn finished T-3, and last year he missed the cut, but that’s because he had a blow up round. Put it this way, he’s played seven rounds at Pebble Beach and has shot a 72 or better in six of those seven rounds.

Hahn may very well be that name you don’t expect on the first page of the leaderboard this week.

John Merrick– I’m probably not going to take John Merrick…I don’t know, I might. If I do take Jimmy Walker, yeah, actually I might have to we’ll see. If you’re like me and you end up taking Jimmy Walker or Jason Day, or one of the other top expensive golfers this week, you are going to need to go really cheap. And Merrick is a really, really cheap pick.

Merrick is having a horrible season thus far. In eight tournaments, he has made the cut in only two tournaments. That’s really atrocious, but Merrick is from the area and has played well at Pebble Beach.

In 2013, Merrick finished T-16, in 2011: T-39, and in 2008: T-61. Merrick may be worth a flyer here at Pebble Beach. It may be a high risk, but as I mentioned at the top of this article, sometimes you have to be a contrarian and take the risks that 99% of the other teams won’t take.

Mark Hubbard– If you want to take a safer pick, take a look at Mark Hubbard. He’s one of the young, talented golfers that has come on Tour, but he hasn’t been hyped up like Tony Finau or Daniel Berger.

Hubbard has made the cut in seven of eight tournaments, including a T-20 at Humana, and even made the cut last week at Torrey Pines which is really impressive. Hubbard might not have a high ceiling, but his floor seems to be a lot higher than a lot of the golfers in that price range.

Next: Will Jason Day Win A Major This Year?

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