Dell Match Play Sweet 16 Predictions

AUSTIN, TX - MARCH 25: Jordan Spieth of the United States speaks with the media behind the 16th green during the third round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 25, 2016 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

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AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 25: Zach Johnson of the United States (L) and Shane Lowry of Ireland watch a tee shot on the third hole during the third round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 25, 2016 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

The Rory McIlroy-Zach Johnson match is going to be a classic. At first glance you might give McIlroy the edge in this one. He outranks Johnson in the OWGR – number 3 to number 15 – and he’s playing for back-to-back championships this week – no insignificant incentive.

But getting to the Sweet 16 bracket hasn’t been a walk in the park for McIlroy. He edged out Thorbjorn Olesen 1 up in the first round of group play and Smylie Kaufman 3 and 1 in the second round. I actually would have expected both of them to fold before a McIlroy onslaught much more quickly. Then Kevin Na pushed McIlroy to the end and beyond in the third round.

Johnson has been delivering the stronger game this week. He put Marcus Fraser away 4 and 3 in the first round of group play and crushed Martin Kaymer 8 and 6 in the second. Then Shane Lowry fell to Johnson’s superior game 4 and 3 in the third round.

Playing stats, new clubs, and tweaked putting grips aside, I think this one’s going to come down to mental agility and a killer instinct. Match play is as much about outfoxing your opponent as it is about outdriving and scrambling. Johnson’s blood is up and McIlroy’s playing defensive golf and I see Zach Johnson prevailing in this Ryder Cup grudge match.

Next: Kirk v Haas

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