WGC-Dell Match Play: Who will survive and advance in Austin?

2 of 5

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 26: Dustin Johnson of the USA poses with the trophy after winning the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 26, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

How can you bet against DJ at this point? Much has been made of all the talent in the game of golf today, but no one has been able to wrestle away the No. 1 spot from DJ in the past year. He’s also the tournament’s defending champion.

Kisner has had a slow start to 2018 and, like Wiesberger, hasn’t made it past the group stage at this event. Wiesberger did win two matches last year. Hadwin brings in three straight top-12 finishes and has the ability to go low (he has a 59 to his name) and could give DJ his best shot.

Projected order of finish: Johnson, Hadwin, Kisner, Wiesberger

Group 2: Justin Thomas (2), Francesco Molinari (21), Patton Kizzire (48), Luke List (60)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 21: Justin Thomas of the USA in action during a practise round for the WGC Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 21, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

A pair of hot players making their debut in Kizzire and List join JT along with the veteran Molinari. Molinari’s tournament record isn’t great, though, as he’s failed to advance to the final 16 in seven appearances.

Kizzire’s won twice in the 2017-18 season. List climbed from No. 147 in the world in January to No. 69 last week when the field was finalized thanks to five straight top-25s, including a runner-up at the Honda Classic in a playoff won by Thomas.

A win and a runner-up finish in his last two starts make Thomas the favorite.

Projected order of finish: Thomas, List, Kizzire, Molinari

Group 3: Jon Rahm (3), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (28), Chez Reavie (43), Keegan Bradley (63)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 21: John Rahm of Spain in action during a practise round for the WGC Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 21, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

Jon Rahm showed us his WGC-Match Play chops by advancing to the finals in his debut in 2017. He’s now the top-ranked European and should advance to the round of 16.

Until the Valspar Championship two weeks ago, Reavie had made 17 cuts in a row and was runner-up not long ago in Phoenix. He could be a tough out in his tournament debut. Aphibarnrat is also a recent winner in Europe and Bradley has recaptured his game to climb up from as low as No. 120 last summer and owns Ryder Cup experience.

Projected order of finish: Rahm, Reavie, Aphibarnrat, Bradley

Group 4: Jordan Spieth (4), Patrick Reed (19), Haotong Li (34), Charl Schwartzel (49)

JERSEY CITY, NJ – SEPTEMBER 28: Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth of the U.S. Team line up a putt during Thursday foursome matches of the Presidents Cup at Liberty National Golf Club on September 28, 2017 in Jersey City, New Jersey. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

It’s about time to call an upset. Jordan Spieth’s struggled on the greens this season and while he’s racked up top-20s, he’s been a little off kilter. Reed lives for match play and comes in off of two top-10 finishes in which he was in contention. He’ll be amped to beat his Team USA partner in Spieth’s home state.

Li is an impressive 22-year-old from China who’s a multi-winner in Europe, but this stage may be a bit too big in his debut. Schwartzel is always steady but he hasn’t had a worldwide top 10 since June 2017 and lacks a sparkling match play resume.

Projected order of finish: Reed, Spieth, Li, Schwartzel

Group 5: Hideki Matsuyama (5), Patrick Cantlay (30), Cameron Smith (46), Yusaku Miyazato (53)

PACIFIC PALISADES, CA – FEBRUARY 18: Patrick Cantlay lines up a putt on the ninth green during the final round of the Genesis Open at Riviera Country Club on February 18, 2018 in Pacific Palisades, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Speaking of upsets, it’s time for another. Matsuyama is making just his second start since missing a month with a wrist injury. He did well to tie for 49th at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, but you’ll need to be sharper than that in this group.

Cantlay’s made 14 cuts in a row including a breakthrough win in the fall. The former world No. 1 amateur from Stanford is the complete package and is my pick to upset Matsuyama. Smith is in good form, too, with four top-20s in 2018.

Miyazato makes his debut and would be a surprise to advance; his claim to fame is making two aces in one round in Japan.

Projected order of finish: Cantlay, Smith, Matsuyama, Miyazato

Group 6: Rory McIlroy (6), Brian Harman (18), Jhonattan Vegas (44), Peter Uihlein (57)

CHASKA, MN – OCTOBER 02: Rory McIlroy of Europe lines up a putt on the seventh green during singles matches of the 2016 Ryder Cup at Hazeltine National Golf Club on October 2, 2016 in Chaska, Minnesota. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

This seems like a pretty advantageous group for Rory. He comes in hot off his dominating Sunday performance to win at Bay Hill. I’ve got the 2015 WGC-Dell Match Play champ moving on to the knockout stage.

Still, Harman showed us he can hang with the big boys as evidenced by last year’s US Open contention and five top-10s since October. He makes his tournament debut. Vegas has three top-20s in 2018 and Uihlein is a dark horse given his 2010 U.S. Amateur crown. Vegas will also have some extra fans rooting on the former Texas Longhorn.

Projected order of finish: McIlroy, Harman, Uihlein, Vegas

Group 7: Sergio Garcia (7), Xander Schauffele (20), Dylan Frittelli (41), Shubhankar Sharma (62)

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – MARCH 01: Xander Schauffele watches his tee shot on the second hole during the first round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on March 1, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

The Hall of Famer in Garcia is paired with three 20-somethings bursting with talent. Schauffele could face Garcia in the Ryder Cup after two wins last season, including the Tour Championship. Frittelli is a European Tour winner who starred in Austin at the University of Texas. Sharma is playing better than his seed as the 21-year-old Indian’s won twice in Europe and dazzled us in his PGA Tour debut a couple weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico Championship.

If Garcia’s locked in, he’s the man to beat in his new home city. He may be adrift thinking of his Champions Dinner at Augusta in two weeks, so I’ve got Schauffele. He comes in with three straight top-20s and can keep up his good play by advancing to the knockout stage in his tournament debut.

Projected order of finish: Schauffele, Garcia, Sharma, Frittelli

Group 8: Jason Day (8), Louis Oosthuizen (25), Jason Dufner (42), James Hahn (56)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 27: Jason Day of Australia poses with the Walter Hagen Cup after defeatingLouis Oosthuizen of South Africa 5 /

There’s a 50-50 chance that a Jason advances from this group. I’m rolling with the Day version. He won this event in 2014 and 2016 and regained his touch with a win at the Farmers Insurance Open this season.

To advance, he’ll likely have to topple Oosthuizen in a rematch of the ’16 finals. Oosthuizen hasn’t been overly impressive this season, but he has a knack for playing well on the big stage. At the WGC-Dell Match Play, Oosthuizen advanced to the quarterfinals in ’14 and ’15 as well.

Dufner and Hahn are streaky players and haven’t contended in 2018. Dufner’s match play record is not stellar and Hahn makes his tournament debut.

Projected order of finish: Day, Oosthuizen, Dufner, Hahn

Group 9: Tommy Fleetwood (9), Daniel Berger (26), Kevin Chappell (33), Ian Poulter (58)

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – JANUARY 12: Tommy Fleetwood of Europe hits an approach shot during the fourballs matches on day one of the 2018 EurAsia Cup presented by DRB-HICOM at Glenmarie G /

Would it be a surprise if any of these four advance? Tommy Fleetwood is emerging as a potential superstar, Berger and Chappell could represent team USA for years to come and Poulter has one of the best match play resumes of the 64 in the tournament.

This could be a group that produces three players with a 2-1 or 1-2 record. I’ll roll with Fleetwood due to recent form (14 straight top-40 finishes and a win) and a quarterfinals appearance at the 2015 WGC-Dell Match Play. Berger and Chappell have been solid of late but lack a good resume at this event.

After a revamped 2017, Poulter, the 2010 tournament champ, is off to a quiet start in 2018. He’ll have to channel into his Ryder Cup match play mindset to advance this week.

Projected order of finish: Fleetwood, Chappell, Poulter, Berger

Group 10: Paul Casey (10), Matt Fitzpatrick (31), Kyle Stanley (45), Russell Henley (51)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 23: Matthew Fitzpatrick of England looks over a green during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 23, 2016 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

It looks like a pair of Englishmen will battle it out to advance. I’ll give the edge to young Fitzpatrick. Casey’s been on an emotional rollercoaster with his win two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship and the funeral of a close friend last week. He played inspired golf while mourning in Florida, but it could be tough to regroup for the grind that is the WGC-Dell Match Play.

Stanley has a few top-25s this season and makes his first tournament start since 2012. Henley makes his first tournament start since ’15 and has a pair of top-25s in a relatively quiet 2017-18 season.

Projected order of finish: Fitzpatrick, Casey, Stanley, Henley

Group 11: Marc Leishman (11), Branden Grace (23), Bubba Watson (35), Julian Suri (64)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 23: Marc Leishman of Australia watches his tee shot on the sixth hole during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 23, 2016 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Leishman, Watson and Grace have all made the WGC-Dell Match Play round of 16 at least once. Leishman’s made it twice in the past three years and gets the slight nod.

Leishman followed up a career best 2016-17 season with three top-10s in 2018.

Watson is reinvigorated after his recent win at the Genesis Open which he followed with a top-10 in Mexico. He has the best match play resume of the four with four trips to the sweet 16 including fourth place in 2011.

Grace advanced to the sweet 16 in ’15 and finished second in his pool the next year. He hasn’t missed a cut August.

Suri makes it in as the last man in the field. The young American has a win in Europe but has yet to show us his full skillset in the U.S.

Projected order of finish: Leishman, Watson, Grace, Suri

Group 12: Tyrrell Hatton (12), Charley Hoffman (22), Brendan Steele (36), Alexander Levy (55)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 23: Tyrrell Hatton of England tees off on the 17th hole of his match during round two of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 23, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images) /

I’m rolling with Hatton in what could be a Ryder Cup matchup this fall in Paris.

Hatton won two matches at last year’s WGC-Dell Match Play to just miss out on the knockout stage. The Englishman won twice in Europe 2017 and has three top-10s this season, one at the WGC-Mexico Championship.

Hoffman is always solid but he’s yet to contend this season and hasn’t made the top 16 at this event. Steele is an underrated player with a win and a top-three this season who makes his second tournament appearance. Levy is a fiery competitor with three top-10s in Europe in 2018.

Projected order of finish: Hatton, Hoffman, Steele, Levy

Group 13: Alex Noren (13), Tony Finau (29), Thomas Pieters (39), Kevin Na (61)

PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 08: Tony Finau plays his shot from the 18th tee during the first round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 8, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

This group offers contrasting styles with plodders Noren and Na taking on bombers Finau and Pieters.

I like Finau to emerge from this group in his WGC-Dell Match Play debut. He has two top-10s this season on the PGA Tour and his aggressive style should give him an abundance of eagle tries. Pieters will likely follow a similar formula, but his play has been up-and-down this season.

Shorter hitters like Noren and Na should not be discounted, though. The two combine for three top-three finishes on the young season. Noren made a run to the 2017 quarterfinals.

Projected order of finish: Finau, Noren, Na, Pieters

Group 14: Phil Mickelson (14), Rafa Cabrera Bello (17), Satoshi Kodaira (40), Charles Howell III (59)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 25: Phil Mickelson lines up a putt on the 13th hole of his match during round five of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at the Austin Country Club on March 25, 2017 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

This appears to be a pretty advantageous group for Lefty.

Kodaira is unproven in the U.S. and will make his WGC-Dell Match Play debut. Howell III was a surprise making it to the knockout stage last year. He’s made a lot of cuts recently but is hardly a top tier talent at this point.

Cabrera Bello will likely be the man to give Mickelson his toughest match. He was T3 in Mexico where Phil won recently and took third place at the ’16 Match Play. RCB also finished second in his group last year.

Who knows where Phil’s head will be with Augusta right around the corner. If he keeps up his strong play that’s netted him four top-six finishes in a row, he should move on to the weekend here.

Projected order of finish: Mickelson, Cabrera Bello, Howell III, Kodaira

Group 15: Pat Perez (15), Gary Woodland (24), Webb Simpson (37), Si Woo Kim (50)

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – MAY 03: Gary Woodland hits a tee shot on the third hole during his semi final match in the World Golf Championships Cadillac Match Play at TPC Harding Park on May 3, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Projected order of finish: Woodland, Simpson, Perez, Kim

Woodland nearly pulled off a win at the 2015 WGC-Dell Match Play and could put himself in position again this year. He was a winner last month in Arizona and has three top-12 finishes this season.

Perez tore it up at the end of 2017 and is still playing well, but not at the same pace. He took second in his group last year.

The young Kim is the epitome of a streaky player. The 2017 PLAYERS champion is off to a slow start in 2018 and could very well go 0-3 or 3-0 in the group stage.

If not Woodland, Simpson could be in the mix. He has three top-10 finishes this season and has twice made it to the round of 16 or further at this event.

Group 16: Matt Kuchar (16), Ross Fisher (27), Yuta Ikeda (47), Zach Johnson (54)

AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 25: Matt Kuchar of the United States (R) shakes hands with Justin Rose of England on the 16th green after Kuchar won their match 3 /

This is certainly not the flashiest of groups, but it’s packed with players experienced in this format.

Kuchar and Johnson are a pair of grinders with deep team USA credentials. Kuchar won the WGC-Dell Match Play in 2013 in Arizona. Johnson finished third in 2006 and advanced to the round of 16 the past two years.

Fisher has three runner-up finishes on the European Tour since October. He finished fourth at the Match Play in 2009 and made a run to last year’s quarterfinals.

Ikeda hasn’t fared well at this event and was unimpressive in two recent starts in North America.

Projected order of finish: Kuchar, Fisher, Johnson, Ikeda

Home/Golf Power Rankings