The Match: Five most interesting prop bets for Tiger vs. Phil

This one is perhaps the most interesting bet, as both players are money-line favorites. Clearly, that means that the books are expecting what I’m expecting: a fairly even match between two players who will be pin-hunting far more often than not. Shadow Creek is no slouch of a course, but it’s also not going to be Bethpage Black with a U.S. Open setup, either. Birdie opportunities should be plentiful, and if this were a medal-play contest, I’d look for both players to be pressing deep into red numbers.

That being said, we’re looking for a real favorite here, and as the money line suggests, I like Tiger to come out on top. He had a much stronger season, start to finish, than Mickelson did, and when his putter is on, he’s still one of the best players on the planet.

Woods finished 2018 ranked 15th in birdie average, 39th in strokes gained putting, and seventh in adjusted scoring. The fact that he did all of that ranked 129th in driving accuracy and just 67th in greens in regulation percentage shows just how capable he is of scoring, even when he finds trouble.

Mickelson is an interesting bet, still, because of his wizardry with short irons and wedges. Its no secret that he’s at his best in these type of big-money, spotlight situations. So regardless of what you think about the condition of his game as the season wore on, I feel like he’s the ultimate gamer, the guy you want when the highest stakes are in play.

For the 2018 PGA TOUR season, Mickelson finished sixth in birdie average, 10th in strokes gained putting, and 25th in adjusted scoring. He’s clearly enjoying a higher level of play even as his career heads towards its presumed twilight. I’ll never count Phil out as long as he can put a wedge or a putter in his hands.

If you’re inclined to wager here, again, I’m taking Woods for the odds, but you really can’t go wrong either way. This match should be a birdie bonanza.