The Match: Five most interesting prop bets for Tiger vs. Phil
To say that Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson can be a little wild at times would be putting it kindly. Both of them are outstanding iron and wedge players, but when you put a long club – especially driver – in their hands, it’s almost a strongman contest. Hit it out there a mile, and let the forecaddies go find it for you. It’s hard to argue with the results, obviously: 123 combined PGA TOUR wins, 19 combined majors, and by far the top two all-time leaders in prize money won.
When it comes to these bets (offered separately but listed here together), the prevailing bookkeeping wisdom is that neither player will have too much risk on Friday. However, there’s a decent bit of water in play on several holes, specifically on the back nine, so that’s where I’m looking the closest.
In their press conference earlier this week, Tiger noted the creek running down the left side of the first hole, but the first significant risk is on the 558-yard, par-5 fourth hole. A large water hazard separates the third and fourth holes at Shadow Creek, but it presents a unique challenge for Tiger and Phil. Given their length, they may try to cut the hazard to give a shorter approach to the green – a move that is far more likely in match play than traditional medal play on the PGA TOUR. Tiger would have to hit a dead pull to be in significant trouble, but Phil might find trouble with a big cut off the tee.
On the back nine, water protects the par-3 13th short and right of the green. No. 14 presents a similar risk. Coming home, the par-3 17th is entirely a carry over water to a 10-yard deep green, and No. 18 features water up almost the entirety of the right side. In other words, the chances for at least one swimmer on Friday are pretty good. I like the “Yes” to come through as a +260 underdog.
As far as hitting one OB – this course just doesn’t feature a ton of risk for two players of such a high skill level. There’s a reason that the “Yes” is coming in at +450, with the “No” as a strong -700 favorite. Fade this action completely, even if the fireworks that would go off with either player going wild would be outstanding entertainment.