Sentry Tournament of Champions: Inside the numbers as stars fall short
By Bill Felber
The Sentry Tournament of Champions gave us a thrilling finish between Xander Schauffele and Gary Woodland, but what happened to the stars who fell short?
The Sentry Tournament of Champions wrapped up Sunday at Kapalua with Xander Schauffele shooting a final round course record-tying 62 to pass third-round leader Gary Woodland and win by one stroke.
Neither Schauffele nor Woodland would have been among the betting favorites entering play. In fact the Sentry field was, as would be expected of a Tournament of Champions, loaded with major stars.
Some, like Rory McIlroy, contended for most of the tournament before falling back. Others, among them Jason Day, played decently but never managed to thrust themselves into contention. And then there were those – we’re looking at you, Brooks Koepka and Bubba Watson – who played as if they were late for their zip-line appointment.
What parts of their games failed these prominent tour stars when cast into Maui’s garden paradise? These are not, after all, players with weaknesses.
The answers vary from individual to individual. That means it’s time for a performance post-mortem. That post-mortem looks at the play of a half dozen pros not named Schauffele or Woodland in an effort to determine what part of their game cost them a chance at the title.
For background, the PGA Tour provides data in hundreds of performance-related categories. But far and away the four with the best relationship to scoring are the Strokes Gained calculations: Strokes Gained Off The Tee, Strokes Gained Approach the Green, Strokes Gained Around the Green and Strokes Gained Putting.
During the 2018 season, the strength of the correlation between a player’s scoring average and two of these numbers – driving plus approaching the green — exceeded 0.60, a significant correlation indeed.
That’s why when analysts try to determine why a player does well or poorly, the first places they tend to look are the Strokes Gained columns.
For players who disappointed at Kapalua, there is this bit of good news. Player performance often varies widely on tour. So this week’s also ran could easily be next week’s champion.