Tiger Woods: How gracefully will his game age moving forward?
By Bill Felber
The average stroke average of our 20 players at age 42 was 70.686. There was what might be viewed as the normal three-stroke disparity in that average, from Singh’s low to a high of 72.585 for Brooks in 2004.
During their age 43 seasons, the average of their stroke averages climbed to 70.813. That’s significant precisely because it marks a career turning point. From their age 41 to age 42 seasons, the scoring averages of the 20 had actually decreased, albeit only by seven one-hundredth of a stroke, from 70.75.
This does not lock in any certainty that Woods’ scoring average will climb in 2019. Indeed, of the 20 players in the control group, the stroke averages of nine declined at age 43, a few by significant amounts. Davis Love II lowered his stroke average more than two-thirds of a stroke, from 70.984 to 70.297 during his age 43 season. Angel Cabrera, Jim Furyk and Stewart Cink did nearly as well.
The odds, however, begin to turn against the player at age 43. Of the 20, stroke averages of 11 climbed during the age 43 season. By the way, this precisely reversed the trend during the players’ age 42 seasons, when the stroke averages of 11 declined while those of nine rose.
Those increases can be severe. In six cases, the damage amounted to more than half a stroke, topping out at 1.182 strokes for Robert Allenby between 2014 and 2015.
What Tiger Woods faces this season, then, isn’t strong enough to be described as a wave, or maybe even a trend. It is, however, a mean that denotes the beginning of an upward trend.
Woods’ stroke average during his age 42 season was 69.35. Assuming he follows the group trend, that average will climb in 2019…but not by a lot. A rise at the average rate of .127 strokes would take his 2019 stroke average to approximately 69.477. Over the course of the past decade, a player sporting that season-long stroke average would have ranked about fifth on tour.