Phil Mickelson: How to age gracefully

GIR

The most obvious area of deterioration in a more mature Mickelson’s game has been in his precision targeting of greens.

In his youth, this was a relative strength. Between 1993 and 2008, Phil routinely averaged between 65 and 70 percent of greens in regulation, topping out at 69.91 percent in 2001. Last year, however, he was down at 64.99 percent.

Worse, as Phil Mickelson slipped his fellow competitors got better. Between 2004 and 2004, Mickelson’s advantage over his peers measured eight-tenths of a standard deviation.   Between 2014 and 2018, Phil’s competitors held an eight-tenths of a standard deviation over him in hitting greens.

And unlike hitting fairways, hitting greens means something on tour. Since Phil turned pro, the correlation between a player’s ability to hit a green in regulation and that player’s score has averaged 56 percent.  Since the tour began keeping the hyper-meaningful Strokes Gained data in 2004, the correlation between Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and score has averaged a compelling 70 percent.

In short, hitting greens in regulation is the single most important thing a player can do, week in and week out, to protect his score. And in the big picture, Phil is losing his edge in that category.

In the small picture, however, Phil can still have his weeks. That’s a part of what propelled him at Pebble, where he hit an out-of-character  79 percent of the greens in regulation. It translated to 6.975 Strokes Gained Approaching the green for the week in a skill that had become his weakness.

That’s hearkening back beyond the good, old days  to a fantasy world Phil’s has never actually lived in for any extended period.