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WGC-Match Play: Making the predictions at Austin Country Club

By Mike Randleman

AUSTIN, TX - MARCH 24: Kyle Stanley of the United States plays his shot from the 16th tee during the quarterfinal round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 24, 2018 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TX - MARCH 24: Kyle Stanley of the United States plays his shot from the 16th tee during the quarterfinal round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 24, 2018 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images) /
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 25: Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen Cup after winning the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 25, 2018 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 25: Bubba Watson of the United States celebrates with the Walter Hagen Cup after winning the World Golf Championships-Dell Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 25, 2018 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /

Opening Rounds

Here’s another look at the 16 groups with projected winners and quick hitters on each player to advance to the knockout stage.

Group 1: 1 Dustin Johnson, 24 Hideki Matsuyama, 40 Branden Grace, 55 Chez Reavie

  • Hard to go against the 2017 champ DJ who at 14-12 is the only one in the group with a winning all-time record at the WGC-Match Play.

Group 2: 2 Justin Rose, 22 Gary Woodland, 34 Eddie Pepperell, 53 Emiliano Grillo

  • I was close to rolling with the 2015 runner-up Woodland, but considering that result came in Arizona I’ve got Rose who seeks his first trip past the quarters.

Group 3: 3 Brooks Koepka, 27 Alex Noren, 36 Haotong Li, 60 Tom Lewis

  • My first upset goes to Alex Noren who has an 11-4 record at the WGC-Match Play. After Brooks Koepka (who is 8-4 here) lost all that weight this year in prep for the ESPN Body Issue, he hasn’t been the same player. Which is a weird thing to write, yet we’re here.

Group 4: 4 Rory McIlroy, 32 Matt Fitzpatrick, 47 Justin Harding 64, Luke List

  • It’s an intriguing idea to go with Fitzpatrick considering he finished ahead of McIlroy when playing together at Bay Hill, but the recent PLAYERS Champ and 2015 WGC-Match Play champ McIlroy has it rolling right now with six consecutive top-10s.

Group 5: 5 Justin Thomas, 31 Keegan Bradley, 33 Matt Wallace, 50 Lucas Bjerregaard

  • It’s hard to believe Justin Thomas has a 6-7 record at the WGC-Match Play, but he made amends by reaching last year’s semifinals. Bradley is 1-7-2 and the others are debuting.

Group 6: 6 Bryson DeChambeau, 17 Marc Leishman, 39 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, 59 Russell Knox

DeChambeau showed well in match play to win the 2015 U.S. Amateur, but I’ve got Leishman in a slight upset as he already has two trips to the round of 16 under his belt and three top-fives in 2019.

Group 7: 7 Francesco Molinari, 21 Webb Simpson, 45 Thorbjorn Olesen, 63 Satoshi Kodaira

  • This group pits arguably the top player from each side at the Ryder Cup in Molinari and Simpson. All four players in this group are .500 or better all time at this event and Molinari is a pedestrian 4-11, but his tenacity shown at the Open and at Le Golf National lead me to believe he’s ready to turn a new leaf.

Group 8: 8 Jon Rahm, 23 Matt Kuchar, 43 J.B. Holmes, 54 Si Woo Kim

  • We’re keeping it chalky as it’s tough to go against the 2017 finalist Rahm. He’s got six top-10s on the PGA Tour in 2019 and will be eager to avenge a winless 2018 WGC-Match Play effort.

Group 9: 9 Xander Schauffele, 29 Rafa Cabrera Bello, 35 Tyrrell Hatton, 62 Lee Westwood

  • Am I down with RCB? Yeah, you know me. He’s got a 9-6-1 WGC-Match Play record including a semifinals run in 2016. Cabrera Bello has a chance to get by Schauffele who hasn’t done much since his Tournament of Champions win in January.

Group 10: 10 Paul Casey, 25 Cameron Smith, 42 Charles Howell III, 58 Abraham Ancer

  • This group lacks flash but could be the most well-rounded. Casey is 25-14-1 but after grinding to win last week at the Valspar, I like Charles Howell III to sneak above .500 all time here (10-11) and make it out of the group stage for the third year in a row.

Group 11: 11 Tommy Fleetwood, 19 Louis Oosthuizen, 41 Kyle Stanley, 49 Byeong-Hun An

  • After climbing into contention last week at the Valspar, Oosthuizen is peaking at the right time heading into an event where he’s 19-10 all time. He was a runner up in Austin in 2016 and has two other quarterfinalist appearances.

Group 12: 12 Jason Day, 20 Phil Mickelson, 37 Henrik Stenson, 52 Jim Furyk

  • In the group of Closest to Death with three 40-somethings in the mix, I like the youngster of the bunch, 31-year-old Day, to prevail. He’s a two-time WGC Match Play winner including in Austin in 2016.

Group 13: 13 Tiger Woods, 18 Patrick Cantlay, 44 Brandt Snedeker, 61 Aaron Wise

  • Cantlay hasn’t contended much on Tour this season but five top-10s in 2018-19 make him an attractive pick to knock off Tiger who WD’d from Bay Hill and couldn’t get it going with a T30 at the Players. Cantlay was 2-1 in group stage last year.

Group 14: 14 Tony Finau, 30 Ian Poulter, 48 Kevin Kisner, 56 Keith Mitchell

  • Tony Finau went 2-1 last year and Poulter is 27-15 all time, but I’ll take the 2018 runner up Kisner, who is 8-4-1 all time here. Kisner has six straight top-30s on Tour and is close to contending like he has in recent years.

Group 15: 15 Bubba Watson, 28 Jordan Spieth, 38 Billy Horschel, 57 Kevin Na

  • If the former Texas Longhorn Spieth had any kind of form entering this week it’d be tempting to roll with him. It’s also tough to roll with the defending champ Bubba as he seems to be in one of his weird head spaces talking about how stroke play is more favorable to him over match play. So by default, give me Horschel who played solidly on the Florida Swing and is 4-4 in Match Play.

Group 16: 16 Patrick Reed, 26 Sergio Garcia, 46 Shane Lowry, 51 Andrew Putnam

Between Reed, Garcia and Lowry, there’s a lot of fire in this group. I like Captain America Reed to improve upon his 9-6-1 WGC-Match Play record and win his third group in the last five years.

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