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WGC-Dell Match Play: Five biggest surprises from group play

By Brandon Raper

AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 27: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland looks on in his match against Luke List of the United States during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 27, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 27: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland looks on in his match against Luke List of the United States during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 27, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images) /
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WGC-Dell Match Play Justin Thomas
AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 28: Justin Thomas of the United States reacts on the 15th green in his match against Matt Wallace of England during the second round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 28, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Darren Carroll/Getty Images) /

Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson and more fail to advance

We all know that Match Play can be unpredictable. Heck, it’s part of why Bubba Watson explicitly argues against the format. It’s not that the format is “bad”, but the fact that boiling anything down to a one-day run leaves quite a bit up to variance. Watson says that he believes he has a better chance in a 72-hole format against an entire field than he does in an 18-hole match against one opponent.

While he might not be gaining legions of followers on the “ditch match play” bandwagon, he’s sure to have several of golf’s top stars at least thinking about that a little bit after this week. Of the top ten players in the seeding at the WGC-Dell Match Play, only four – Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Paul Casey – advanced out of the group stage. The others put up a combined 5-9-4 record in round robin play.

Brooks Koepka was the biggest disappointment of the week, going 0-2-1 in a group that included No. 27 Alex Noren, No. 36 Haotong Li, and No. 60 Tom Lewis. He lost three of the final five holes in his opening match against Lewis (while winning two) to lose 1-down, squandering a lead he held for the entire front nine. He won just three holes against Li on Thursday, but lost four, and found himself mathematically eliminated with a match against Noren still to come. Koepka competed in his Friday finale, but a four-hole deficit at the turn was simply too much to overcome with nothing to truly play for.

In all, seven of this week’s “Sweet Sixteen” come from the bottom half of the draw, pools 3 and 4. Kevin Na, who survived pool play largely due to Spieth’s struggles on Wednesday and Friday, is the lowest-ranked player in the knockout round, at 60th in the OWGR.

A few fun facts from WGC Match Play history before we wrap up. Four winners have come from the lower half of the rankings: Steve Stricker in 2001, Kevin Sutherland in 2002, Geoff Ogilvy in 2006, and Bubba Watson last year. Sutherland is the lowest-seeded player to win, at No. 62. He defeated No. 45 Scott McCarron that year in the highest combined seeded final in event history.

If Na were to somehow meet Lucas Bjerregard (No. 50) in the final, they would tie that 17-year record. It’s a long shot, but it’s Match Play. It pays to get hot at the right time.

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