2: Rory McIlroy, -8.29
The Masters of course has been McIlroy’s personal bugaboo, the one leg of the Grand Slam he has yet to win. He’s come close, most famously leading through three rounds in 2011 until collapsing with a final round of 80.
A triple bogey at the 10th and a four-putt at the 12th did him in.
In 2015, McIlroy suffered through an indifferent opening 36 holes that left him a dozen strokes behind the eventual winner, Jordan Spieth. McIlroy caught fire on the weekend with rounds of 68-66, and although Spieth was by then too far in front he did manage to move all the way up to fourth, just two strokes behind runners-up Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose.
Since 2014, McIlroy has never finished outside the top 10, coming home eighth, fourth, tenth, seventh and fifth.
McIlroy’s essential problem at Augusta has been the volatility of his scores. Through 38 scored rounds, he has a 71.76 average, but a 3.64 standard deviation of performance. The plus side of that combustible record has been daunting: it includes 10 rounds in the 60s and 23 rounds under par.
The problem is the other portion of the equation. Eight times McIlroy has shot 76 or worse, skying to 80 on that horrible Sunday in 2011. So it can sometimes be difficult to be sure which McIlroy will show up.