Masters: Are we entering the Brooks Koepka era at Augusta?

Brooks Koepka opened his 2019 Masters campaign in outstanding form, firing an opening-round 66 to take a share of the lead at Augusta National. As the winner of two of the last three major championships, is he ready to stake his claim to golf’s major throne?

Are we ready to proclaim this the Brooks Koepka era? The question is being asked in the wake of Koepka’s opening round 66 Thursday at the Masters. The round positioned Koepka in a tie with Bryson DeChambeau atop the leaderboard.

It also makes more real the prospect of Koepka winning his fourth major championship. With the 2017 and 2018 U.S. Opens, plus the 2018 PGA, in his grasp. He already has three of the last seven in which he has played. The last player to win three in a seven-major stretch was Tiger Woods nearly 15 years ago.

Of course, Koepka hasn’t won this Masters Tournament yet. Twenty-eight players are within just three strokes of the lead in an abnormally bunched field. Last year’s champion, Patrick Reed, was three strokes off the lead following the first round, but Reed only had nine players even with or ahead of him.

How dominant has Brooks Koepka been during this stretch compared with the best of his contemporaries? We can ascertain that by calculating his dominance rating, the average of his Z Scores during that stretch. The measurement calculates the standard deviation of the player’s performance compared with all other competitors. A -1.50 Z Score would indicate a player performing at an average top 5 level. In other words, he  would be consistently dominant.

We’ll run that number for Koepka’s most recent eight majors – dating back to the 2016 PGA – and compare it with the best eight-tournament stretches during the past decade.

Here’s the data:

       Player                     Tournaments                                                     Z Score

1. Jordan Spieth    2015 Masters to 2016 PGA                           -1.50
2. Brooks Koepka  2016 PGA to 2018 PGA                                  -1.45
3. Rory McIlroy      2013 PGA to 2015 PGA                                   -1.31
4. Adam Scott         2012 Masters to 2013 PGA                          -1.31
5. Dustin Johnson 2014 U.S. Open to 2016 U.S. Open               -1.28
6. Jason Day            2015 Masters to 2016 PGA                           -1.03
7. Justin Rose         2014 Masters to 2015 PGA                            -0.99
8. Rickie Fowler     2017 Masters to 2018 PGA                            -0.97
9. Phil Mickelson   2009 U.S. Open to 2012 Masters                  -0.72

Koepka still has a way to go in order to raise his performance alongside the best eight-tournament stretches of all time. However, were he to win The Masters and follow up with another major championship this year, he’d approach that level.

Victory at The Masters and one other 2019 major would drive his two-season dominance rating to the vicinity of  -1.80, a level that has been reached only 13 times in men’s professional major championship history. Here are the 13 who have averaged a -1.80 dominance rating for an eight-tournament stretch.

       Player                       Tournaments                                                          Z Score

1. Tiger Woods       1999 U.S. Open to 2001 Masters                      -2.39
2. Ben Hogan          1951 Masters to  1954 Masters                       -2.18
3. Bobby Jones      1926 U.S. Open to 1930 U.S. Open                    -2.17
4. James Braid        1903 British Open to 1910 British Open        -2.17
5. Harry Vardon     1898 British Open to 1906 British Open         -2.02
6. Jack Nicklaus      1970 PGA to 1972 British Open                        -1.97
7. Gene Sarazen    1931 U.S. Open to 1933 PGA                             -1.92
8. Jack Nicklaus      1963 British Open to 1965 U.S. Open             -1.91
9. Arnold Palmer   1960 PGA to 1962 British Open                        -1.90
10. Jack Nicklaus      1973 U.S. Open to 1975 Masters                     -1.88
11. Byron Nelson     1938 PGA to 1941 Masters                                -1.81
12. Tom Watson      1977 Masters to 1978 PGA                                -1.81
13. Walter Hagen    1922 British Open to 1924 PGA                        -1.80

While there were many who wondered if Koepka’s game was ready to handle the challenges of Augusta National, he’s certainly off to a fantastic start. A clean scorecard that included a stretch of five birdies in six holes propelled him to the top of the leaderboard after an otherwise slow start. If he can keep up anything resembling that type of form in Friday’s second round, he may be able to put some space between him and the crowd of contenders close behind.