U.S. Open 2019: Pebble Beach is the proving ground of the greats

The 2019 U.S. Open site has historically yielded to the game’s very best.

When the USGA wants to identify the best players of their generation, it goes to Pebble Beach. Think about it. The U.S. Open first came to Pebble in 1972. In those days, the game’s three dominant figures were Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Lee Trevino, and they came home 1-3-4. Nicklaus won by banging a 1-iron off the flagstick at the iconic par-3 17th for a tournament clinching birdie on Sunday.

When the U.S. Open returned to Pebble in 1982, the game’s kingpins were Nicklaus and Tom Watson. Between them they could count five major championships in just the past four years. At Pebble, Watson famously holed out from the rough at the 17th hole to beat Nicklaus by two shots.

The 1992 season lacked a dominant presence, but Nick Faldo, Nick Price and Tom Kite all were widely viewed as members of the game’s front rank. At Pebble Beach, they finished first, fourth and fourth, Kite emerging with the victory in mercilessly windy weather that drove average four-round scores seven strokes above par.

In 2000, Tiger Woods was the clear and acknowledged leading force on tour. At Pebble, he annihilated the field by 15 strokes.

Yes, the 2010 tournament could be viewed as an exception. The winner, Graeme McDowell, would not be ranked among the game’s greats. But 2010 was a turbulent year on tour; Tiger Woods was some measure off his pre-injury form, Phil Mickelson was not week-to-week reliable, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy had not yet established themselves as front-tier performers, and Ernie Els was in his 40s.

Even so, Els, Mickelson and Woods all landed top five positions, and Johnson made a serious run at the title until collapsing in the final round.

So when the championship begins Thursday, we can expect the kind of greatness Pebble Beach perennially produces. The only question, then, is who is the game’s dominant player today: Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson or Tiger Woods?

It’s possible to quantify the degree to which courses tend to produce exceptional performance. We can do that by looking at the average standard deviation of the champions at tournaments played on these courses.

Among the 118 installments of the U.S. Open, 58 — that’s nearly half — have been  conducted at courses that share two traits indicating they have been, and remain, USGA favorites. They have hosted the U.S. Open at least three times, and at least one of those has taken place within the last 30 years.

From most to least, the table below shows the averaged dominance score of the winners of the U.S. Opens played on each of those 13 courses.

Site (Seasons)                                                                         Ave. Dom.

1. Pebble Beach (1972, 82, 92, 2000, 10)                       -2.96
2. Pinehurst (1999, 2005, 14)                                             -2.70
3. Congressional (1964, 97, 2011)                                    -2.66
4. Olympic (1955, 66, 87, 98, 2012)                                  -2.51
5. Baltusrol (1954, 67, 80, 93)                                            -2.47
6. Shinnecock Hills (1986, 95, 2004, 18)                         -2.39
7. Southern Hills (1958, 77, 2001)                                    -2.39
8. Oak Hill (1956, 68, 89)                                                      -2.31
9. Oakmont (1927, 35, 53, 62, 73, 83, 94, 2007, 16    -2.29
10. Oakland Hills (1924, 37, 51, 61, 85, 96                       -2.24
11. Winged Foot (1929, 59, 74, 84, 2006)                         -2.20
12. Merion (1934, 50, 71, 81, 2013)                                   -2.12
13. Medinah (1949, 75, 90)                                                   -1.90

By a significant measure, then, the five U.S. Open championships played at Pebble Beach have produced the most dominant performances of any of the courses that have constituted the recent informal Open “rota.”