Brooks Koepka’s Chase toward Immortality and the All-Time Greats
By Bill Felber
Scenario 1: Brooks Koepka is ordinary
In a scenario pitting any player, even a superb one, against the field, the field almost always deserves to be favored. So let’s assume Brooks Koepka plays only at the average level he has established for major championships in the past five seasons. He has 16 starts in that time period, the average standard deviation in those 16 being -1.27.
Translated to on-course performance, that’s generally good for the lower ranges of the top 10. That comports with Koepka’s actual finishes, which in addition to his four major wins have included five top 10’s, four top 20’s and three finishes outside the top 20.
In what amounts to a “worst case” scenario for Koepka, his peak rating would improve, but only fractionally to about -1.91. In that scenario, he would remain 17th among men all time, gaining fractions on Sarazen and Faldo in 15th and 16th, but forced to wait until after next month’s Open championship for another opportunity to catch or pass them.
On the plus side, he would solidify his margin over Weiskopf and Hutchinson, who are permanently stuck at -1.85.
In that scenario, we could not yet rank Koepka among the dozen best male players of all time, but he would retain at least a bit of momentum in his drive to reach that level of recognition.