Brooks Koepka’s Chase toward Immortality and the All-Time Greats

Scenario 2: A solid top 10

There are plenty of players in the field who could deny Koepka a victory this week. Still, it’s worth considering that in only three of his last 17 major appearances has Koepka finished outside the top 20.

In those other 14, his average finish is sixth. That includes not only his four victories but also his Masters runner-up and three other top 5’s. What happens to Koepka’s all-time rank if he merely finishes sixth — average by his own recent standard – this week.

Again, the math varies by week to week, but as a general rule a sixth place finish will translate to a standard deviation from the field average of about -1.58. If Brooks Koepka achieves that level of performance, his peak score would improve to about -1.94.

That still wouldn’t catch Sarazen and Hutchinson at -1.95, but it would be breathing directly down their necks. It would also position Koepka to haul in the numbers 12 through 14 players on the men’s all-time list, Harry Vardon (-2.03), Jordan Spieth and Byron Nelson (both at -2.02).

Passing Spieth would have the added benefit of giving Koepka the best peak rating of any player whose peak rating is still in flux. Finally, it would bring all five of those legends – okay, Spieth is a legend in the making – within range of Koepka entering Royal Portrush.