Brooks Koepka’s Chase toward Immortality and the All-Time Greats
By Bill Felber
Scenario 3: Brooks Koepka wins normally
With four major titles under his belt already, Koepka is developing a track record for elite performance. Those four victories have come with an average standard deviation score of -2.63.
Let’s say Koepka does win at Pebble, and completes the task with what for him is a “normal” -2.63 winning spread over the field. In stroke terms, that usually translates to about a three or four-shot victory.
In that scenario, Brooks Koepka would leave the course not only with his third consecutive U.S. Open trophy, but having driven his peak rating to -2.04.
How good a winning score is -2.63? Unusual, but hardly out of the question. Since 2017, the average standard deviation of the winner’s performance in majors has been -2.53. So statistically the odds are a bit against it.
On the other hand, just last month Koepka won the PGA with a performance that was 3.03 standard deviations better than the four-round field average, so he’s already established his capabilities.
In the history of men’s major championship golf, only 11 players have achieved a peak rating of -2.05 or better. By lifting his peak to -2.04, a -2.63 performance at Pebble Beach would enable Koepka to leapfrog Nelson, Spieth and Vardon and take over the 12th sport on the all-time list.
Entering Royal Portrush, that level of victory would bring another cohort of greats into play, namely Ben Hogan and Phil Mickelson, who are tied for ninth with peak scores of -2.06.