Brooks Koepka’s Chase toward Immortality and the All-Time Greats

Scenario 4: Brooks Koepka The Great

The way Brooks Koepka has been playing, pure dominance can’t be ruled out. The course also helps fuel that speculation. In the six previous playings of the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, the average standard deviation of the champion has been -2.96. Pebble encourages greatness.

So what happens if Koepka laps the field? In his recent PGA win, Koepka’s four-round score of 272 was more than 14 strokes superior to the four-round field average, producing that -3.04 rating. A second consecutive showing at that level would raise his peak rating to -2.08.

At that level, Koepka would jump Faldo, Sarazen, Nelson, Spieth, Vardon, Ralph Guldahl, Mickelson and Hogan, slotting himself 9th among the greatest male golfers of all time for peak performance.
His next targets would be Sam Snead (8th at -2.10,) Walter Hagen and Bobby Jones (tied for sixth at -2.11.)

That level of victory, in other words, would create a scenario where Koepka might enter the Open Championship in July seeking to be ranked among the half dozen best golfers in the game’s history.

Of course a -3.04 would be notable indeed under U.S. Open conditions. In the tournament’s history, only six players have won with a score exceeding -3.00, the last to do so being Martin Kaymer at Pinehurst in 2014. He hit -3.03.

Tiger Woods, who posted a -4.34 at Pebble Beach in 2000, holds the record, both for the U.S. Open and for all men’s majors.

For the immediate moment, the all-time top five for peak performance remain out of Brooks Koepka’s reach. On the men’s side that top five is: 1. Tiger Woods, -2.68; 2. Jack Nicklaus, -2.35; 3. Arnold Palmer, -2.32; 4. James Braid and Tom Watson, both -2.18.