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U.S. Open 2019: Bold predictions for the week at Pebble Beach

By Brandon Raper

PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 12: Tommy Fleetwood of England plays a shot from the third tee during a practice round prior to the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 12, 2019 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 12: Tommy Fleetwood of England plays a shot from the third tee during a practice round prior to the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 12, 2019 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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U.S. Open 2019 Pebble Beach Bold Predictions Tommy Fleetwood
PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 12: A standard showing Lucas Bjerregaard of Denmark, Tommy Fleetwood of England and Brooks Koepka of the United States is seen during a practice round prior to the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 12, 2019 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images) /

The U.S. Open winner will come from outside the World Top Ten

We know that Pebble Beach’s list of major champions is essentially a “who’s who” of golf history. Jack Nicklaus, Lanny Wadkins, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Tiger Woods, and Graeme McDowell all have top-notch resumes. When people are arguing over whether or not to McDowell “belongs” in this group, you know you’ve got something great on your hands.

Of course, that makes it a bit easier to narrow down the winner, right? Let’s take a look at the top ten players in the Official World Ranking right now.

Brooks Koepka, the current World No. 1, is looking for his third straight U.S. Open win and fifth major in his last nine starts. Dustin Johnson was runner-up at both the Masters and the PGA championship. Rory McIlroy is coming off a dominating win in Canada. Justin Rose won a U.S. Open in 2013 and has spent 13 weeks at No. 1. Tiger Woods lit the world on fire when he won the Masters, and he’s back at Pebble, where he won by fifteen strokes in 2000.

Wait, that’s just the top five in the world. I think the point has been made.

Why, then, do I think the winner comes from outside the top ten? For one, because winning majors is freaking tough. No surprise there, but even the absolute best players in the world aren’t on their best game 24/7. They are consistently above the rest, but major winners, more often than not, peak at the perfect time. That, combined with a little bit of good fortune, is often what immortalizes players as major champions.

All of those top guys have their flaws, just like everyone else. Plus, there’s a TON of talent lurking just behind them. Rickie Fowler (No. 11) is the guy everyone seems to be forgetting, for some reason. Matt Kuchar (No. 12) has been incredible all year, and has three top-ten finishes in his last four. Rahm, Finau, Day, Scott, Fleetwood…the list just keeps going.

Really, you could pick any of the names inside the top 30 and I wouldn’t blink an eye. There are even some guys down further that could make things interesting (names like Ian Poulter and Brandt Snedeker come to mind).

The pressure to win a major championship is a very real thing, and there are far more than ten guys who can win this one. Don’t be surprised to see the pre-tournament favorites fall just a bit shy.

Oh, you want a specific pick? Outside the top ten, give me No. 18 Tommy Fleetwood, the Englishman who has finished inside the top five in each of the last two U.S. Opens. He’s going to win one eventually, and it may as well be this week.

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