John Deere Classic: Dark Horse Candidates in Illinois

Nick Watney – 50/1

Watney takes the lead as the first dark horse for this week. He recently made some noise at the Charles Schwab, where he was -5 through the first two days. Looking to secure his first win since 2012, he instead shot par over the final two days and finished T-8th.

Sunday’s have been a little disappointing for Watney, derailing his chances at strong finishes. His last four Sunday rounds are 70-72-71-74, for a combined +3 over par.

As long as he can keep the ball in play this week, he should put himself in a good position to make the cut, and make a run on this weaker than normal field. With a bunch of top players sitting out this week in preparation for The Open Championship next week, the opportunity for a win or top five is sitting there waiting for someone to pounce.

His best finish at a major came in an Open Championship, happening back in 2010 with a T-7th. If he can finish high enough to qualify, it will be Watney’s first major entry since 2014 that isn’t a PGA Championship.

A big reason I chose Watney for this week is his consistent play across all four SG categories. He ranks between 90th and 130th in all four, ranking 90th, 91st, 106th, and 130th. He is fairly long off the tee at a hair over 300 yards and hits 69.1% of greens in regulation. For someone so consistent across all categories, a good week means plenty of scoring, which I see this week for Watney.