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Six players could make history at this year’s British Open

By Bill Felber

PORTRUSH, NORTHERN IRELAND - JULY 16: Brooks Koepka of the United States plays a shot during a practice round prior to the 148th Open Championship held on the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 16, 2019 in Portrush, United Kingdom. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
PORTRUSH, NORTHERN IRELAND - JULY 16: Brooks Koepka of the United States plays a shot during a practice round prior to the 148th Open Championship held on the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 16, 2019 in Portrush, United Kingdom. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Thomas Bjorn of Denmark walk during a practice round prior to the 148th Open Championship held on the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 16, 2019 in Portrush, United Kingdom. (Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Thomas Bjorn of Denmark walk during a practice round prior to the 148th Open Championship held on the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 16, 2019 in Portrush, United Kingdom. (Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images) /

Rory McIlroy

The (more or less) home-town favorite entered this season ranking 62nd all-time on the career list, with four missed cuts in majors since 2016 having dropped him about 15 places from the height of his career.

But 2019 has been a comeback season for Mcilroy’s image among the game’s all-time greats. His top 10s at the PGA and U.S. Open plus a tie for 21st at The Masters have restored almost all of that loss; he enters The British open ranked in the high 40s for career performance at -12.04.

As a rule, and with tournament-specific variations, victory in a major championship tends to be worth about -2.25 standard deviations of value. Should McIlroy win, then, his career score might improve to the realm of -14.30.

That would elevate him about five additional places this season to a career-best spot somewhere in the mid-40s. He would pass such luminaries of yesteryear as Billy Casper, Chick Evans. Francis Ouimet and five-time British Open champion Peter Thomson.

Even if McIlroy only manages a top 5, he would still stand to pick up 1 to 1.5 standard deviations of value, probably passing all of those names with the possible exception of Thomson, on whose heels he would finish the major season. Finally and possibly most importantly, it would restore momentum to the Northern Irishman’s stalled climb up those career charts, giving plenty of reason for more positive movement in 2020 and beyond.

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