Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?
By Bill Felber
Dustin Johnson
As the 14th ranked player on the FedEx Cup list, Johnson will begin at -3 in the Tour Championship.
Johnson is the third most effective driver in the field behind only McIlroy and Rahm. He averages a gain of .714 strokes against the field off the tee, better than a full standard deviation ahead of the field.
He is an average iron player by the standards of the Tour Championship finalists. Johnson’s 2019 season average of .483 is fractionally better than the .467 field average. Still, it would take a very precise week for Johnson to gain much of an edge on the field through this skill area.
Johnson’s short game is mediocre. Around the greens, he averaged .261 strokes gained this season, slightly better than the Tour Championship field average but not large enough to provide any sort of cushion.
It would require a significant performance uptick for Johnson to win this tournament with his play on the greens. He stands only 19th in the field in Strokes Gained Putting, averaging just .201. The one thing Johnson has going for him is the volatility of the putting skill: if this becomes his hot week, lookout.
Johnson’s -6.39 four-round seasonal average is accompanied by a two standard deviation range of 12.76. That is the most stable performance pattern among the favorites. It also puts his predictable four-round score between -19 and +6.