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Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?

By Bill Felber

MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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Patrick Cantlay (left) and Justin Thomas: Might they be headed for a Tour Championship playoff?. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Patrick Cantlay (left) and Justin Thomas: Might they be headed for a Tour Championship playoff?. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Working through the math

Based on the handicap they carry into East Lake, plus their average 2019 season gains or losses using Strokes Gained, here’s how the leaders project to line up by Sunday evening. The Strokes Gained Numbers represent strokes under (or over) par projected over four rounds.

  • Player                   Hdp        SG Tee   SG App. SG Ard.  SG Putt     Total
  • Justin Thomas   -10          -1.81      -4.39      -1.24      +0.64     -16.80
  • Patrick Cantlay    -8          -2.22      -2.69      -1.57      -2.18      -16.66
  • Rory McIlroy         -5          -4.88      -2.48      -1.09      -1.66      -15.11
  • Brooks Koepka    -7          -2.22      -2.38      -0.08      -0.84      -12.52
  • Adam Scott          -3          -1.51      -3.24      -1.62      -1.29      -10.66
  • Webb Simpson    -4          -0.34      -2.78      -1.30      -2.24      -10.66
  • Jon Rahm              -4          -3.18      -1.26      -0.42      -1.62      -10.48
  • Patrick Reed         -6          -0.73      -0.74      -1.32      -1.06       – 9.85
  • Dustin Johnson   -3          -2.86      -1.93      -1.04      -0.80        – 9.63

In short, after nearly a full season without a single playoff, we appear to be headed for one to decide the Tour Championship. The various aspects of Cantlay’s season-long game – particularly his putting — are just superior enough to offset Thomas’ two-stroke advantage beginning play.

Next. Justin Thomas Takes Home the Win at BMW Championship. dark

The only disadvantage of that prognostication is that this is a PGA Tour event, meaning any of the players theoretically could get blindingly hot this week and upset the statistical dope. The handicapping system does reduce the prospect of any of the players below the ninth starting position doing that, but — especially in the cases of Johnson and Scott — it doesn’t eliminate that possibility.

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