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Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?

By Bill Felber

MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 15th tee during the third round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 17, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 15th tee during the third round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 17, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

Justin Thomas

As the No. 1 player in the FedEx Cup ranking, Thomas begins the Tour Championship at 10-under par.

Off the tee, Thomas has been only a modest figure during the 2019 season. Among the 30 players in the Tour Championship field, he stands 13th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee at .453. That’s against a field average of .416 strokes gained.

If Thomas wins this tournament, it is likely to be due to the precision of his iron play. Among the 30 finalists, Thomas is the pre-eminent iron player, with a Strokes Gained Approaching the Green score of 1.097 per round. He is the only player in the field to have averaged better than 1.0 strokes gained approaching the green per round.

There is a smaller difference in skill level concerning play around the green than any other skill set… and therefore less reason to presume that it will be a defining characteristic of the champion. Thomas’ standing among the 30 entrants is mid-pack. At .31 Strokes Gained Around The Green, he ranks 10th, slightly above the .16 average.

Thomas is far more likely to win the Tour Championship despite his putter than because of it. That club has been a season-long point of contention for him. He enters the Tour Championship averaging -.159 Strokes Gained Putting, 29th among the field entrants. Statistically, he will spot nearly all the other leading contenders two to three strokes on the green.

Among the leading contenders, Thomas’ 2901 resume is one of the more volatile, entering uncertainty into the question of just which Justin Thomas will show up. His average four-round score this season is -7.71, but his two standard deviation range is 15.48 strokes, meaning the only certainty is that – not factoring in his 10-stroke handicap – Thomas is likely to shoot somewhere between 23 under and 15 over. That’s not much help.

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