Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?
By Bill Felber
Rory McIlroy
As the fifth-ranked player, McIlroy tees it up Thursday at 5-under par, three strokes behind Thomas.
McIlroy’s significant advantage over his competitors at East Lake comes in his play off the tee. He has averaged a tour-best 1.12 Strokes Gained Off The Tee, making McIlroy nearly twice as effective teeing the ball up compared to any other member of the Tour Championship field.
His 2.90 standard deviation advantage over the Tour Championship field off the tee is the largest in any skill area by any member of the field. If you view East Lake as a driver’s course, you love McIlroy’s chances.
McIlroy is the field’s 10th best player with an iron in his hand. For the 2019 season as a whole, he has averaged 0.621 Strokes Gained Approaching The Green, slightly ahead of the field average of .469. But he, like the rest of the field, projects to lose ground to Thomas in this area, close to two strokes in McIlroy’s case.
McIlroy’s skills around the green are so-so by Tour Championship Field standards. He averages .273 Strokes Gained per round, 12th best in the field.
For all his reliance on the long game, McIlroy is more than competent on the greens. He averaged 1.416 Strokes Gained Putting during 2019, sixth-best in the field of 30 and translating to about a 1.66 stroke pickup over the four-round tournament.
McIlroy is one of the tour’s most volatile players with a two standard deviation range of 16.4 strokes accompanying his seasonal average of -8.12. Setting aside his five-stroke handicap, the only thing we can be certain of is that he’ll shoot between -25 and +8. That’s a wide range.