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Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?

By Bill Felber

MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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Jon Rahm of Spain looks on from the second tee during the third round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 17, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Jon Rahm of Spain looks on from the second tee during the third round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 17, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /

Jon Rahm

The sixth-ranked player on the FedEx Cup list, Rahm will start his play in the Tour Championship at 4-under par.

Measured by Strokes Gained Off The Tee, he is the second most effective driver in the Tour Championship field, behind only McIlroy. Rahm averaged a gain of .796 strokes through his driving game, 1.37 standard deviations superior to the members of the Tour Championship field.

Rahm is at best a mediocre iron player, at least by the standards of the Tour Championship finalists. For the season he averaged .316, a score that is below the field average. If they both play to their standard performance pattern, Rahm surrenders more than three strokes to Thomas throughout four rounds due to their iron play.

Rahm is not a touch player, and the short game is not his strength. With a 2019 average of .106 Strokes Gained Around The Greens, he ranks only 20th in the field of 30, below the .164 field average at this talent.

Rahm is capable of getting hot with his putter, a skill that could make his Tour Championship chances. He averaged 0.406 Strokes Gained Putting during the 2019 season, eighth-best in the field and above the .216 field average.

Rahm’s 2019 performance chart is the field’s most vulnerable, giving him the potential to either soar or crash and burn in any given week. His four-round average is -8.11, but it is accompanied by a two-standard deviation range of 19.54. That means all we can comfortably say about his likely four-round total is that it will probably fall between -28 and +11, not counting his handicap. You probably knew that much already.

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