Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?

MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
MEDINAH, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 18: Justin Thomas of the United States walks across the bridge on the 13th hole during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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Webb Simpson of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Webb Simpson of the United States plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club No. 3 on August 18, 2019 in Medinah, Illinois. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

Webb Simpson

Simpson is the 9th ranked player on the FedEx Cup list, meaning he will be at 4-under par when he opens play in Atlanta Thursday.

His weakness is off the tee. Among the 30 players at East Lake, Simpson has the third-worst driving stats. For the season he has gained an average of only 0.84 strokes via his driving game.

Simpson partially offsets his deriving disadvantage with a consistent and strong iron game. He has averaged 0.694 Strokes Gained Approaching The green this season, about two-tenths of a stroke better than the field average.

Simpson can hold his own around the greens, although it is not an area where he is likely to run up a significant margin of advantage. His 20191 season average of .325 ranks eighth in the field.

Among the leading contenders at East Lake, Simpson is the most consistent putter, and therefore the player most likely to string together four good rounds on the greens. He averaged 0.559 Strokes Gained Putting during the 2019 season, the third-best score among Tour Championship players.

Simpson sits squarely in the middle of the volatility index with a two standard deviation range of 15.02 strokes atop his -7.94 seasonal average. Setting aside his four-stroke handicap, that forecasts a four-round score between -23 and +8.