Can anyone catch Justin Thomas at the Tour Championship?
By Bill Felber
Adam Scott
Scott stands 13th on the FedEx Cup points list, meaning he will start play at 3-under par, seven strokes behind Thomas.
Compared with the field, Scott has only modest credentials off the tee. At .378 strokes per round, he ranks just 18th among the 30, slightly below the field average of .417 strokes gained. More than any other area of the game, this is the one potentially holding him back.
If Thomas’s iron game advantage falters, Scott is the player best profiled to take advantage of the slip. He has averaged .81 Strokes Gained Approaching The Green this season, better than any player in this week’s field except for Thomas.
If the tournament becomes a game of touch, watch out for Scott. With a .404 Strokes Gained Around The Green, he ranks second among the field, behind only Brandt Snedeker.
Scott is also capable of winning if the tournament becomes a putting contest. At .323 Strokes Gained Putting, he had the 11th best average among Tour Championship entrants, and it is significantly better than Thomas.
His profile is a relatively volatile one. Scott’s 2019 four-round average of -5.59 is accompanied by a two standard deviation range of 16.1 strokes, putting his predictable performance range at East Lake between -22 and +10, not counting his three-stroke handicap.