PGA Tour: Sleeper Candidates that could Surprise at Houston Open

The PGA is heading to an old location at a new time of the year, as they are set to play the Houston Open in its new spot on the fall schedule. This is a prime event for a sleeper candidate to emerge.

It may seem odd, but the Houston Open is now being played in October. This tournament used to provide a handful of players that last opportunity to make it to Augusta. Now, it provides a weak field and true sleeper candidates with the opportunity for some nice FedEx Cup points and a decent paycheck.

There aren’t a ton of big names here. A lot of the sleeper candidates that you would expect to see are actually on the list of people’s favorites this week.

Heck, Henrik Stenson is coming in at better than 10/1 right now.

For this week’s long shots, I set the cutoff at 50/1. Before we get to my picks for the Houston Open, let’s check and see how the sleeper picks from last week did at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open.

• J.T. Poston – 60/1 – MC – 70-71 – Seven bogeys were too much to overcome for Poston.
• Abraham Ancer – 66/1 – MC – 68-70 – one below the line, a bogey at 16 and a double at 18 ruined his week.
• Brian Harman – 70/1 – T-18th (-15) – A 71 on day two hampered what was otherwise a fantastic week, as he shot 64-71-68-66.
• Harold Varner III – 70/1 – T-48th (-11) – A final round 72 dropped Varner well down the leaderboard.
• Bud Cauley – 80/1 – MC – 71-70 – A nice stretch on day one with three birdies through five holes was negated by two bogeys and a double.

Only one of the picks finished in the top 20. If I would’ve listened to one of our staff, West Valentine, I could’ve had hometown favorite Kevin Na at 66/1. Alas, I did not and came away with a rather pedestrian week.

Let’s do better this week. Here are my sleeper picks for the Houston Open.

Kevin Chappell – 55/1

Chappell made news earlier this year when he shot a 59. What made it more incredible was that he tied the all-time record for consecutive birdies with nine straight. Since then, he has played 7 other rounds and sits even through them.

He hasn’t had the best luck at the Houston Open in the past, but we are looking at a new Chappell. He took ten months off from golf, and I think he will head to Houston with a renewed vigor, and a good shot at a top ten finish.

Andrew Landry – 70/1

This makes it five straight events to start the year for Landry. He missed the cut at all of them other than the Safeway Open, where he T-23rd. It could’ve been even better if not for a rough second round where he shot 74.

Oddly enough, this was the first tournament that Landry ever played in. Back in 2015, he missed the cut, but I don’t think anything can be taken away from that finish based on it being his first start. If anything, it gives him a nice little boost having a bit of familiarity with the course.

I like Landry this week. A lot. He is clearly trying to take advantage of these weaker fields at the beginning of the new season to try and grab some FedEx Cup points and make it to the $1 million number, which he barely missed out on last season.

Brendan Steele – 80/1

Steele will be looking to make it four for four on making the cut this season. His best finish of the year was the Shriners, where very consistent play, 68-69-68-65, led to a finish of T-29th.

A mix of familiarity with the course (he has played here over five times), and consistency in his game gets him on my list this week. Across the SG stats, he is 103rd, 105th, 79th, and 102nd. I like a breakout from Steele this week to get him his 4th career win.

Doc Redman – 100/1

Quietly, Redman had been playing some great golf. He has been overshadowed by the amazing group of young golfers that have come out, but Redman has been doing well in his own right.

He has made the cut in seven of ten events that he has played in, finishing in the top 25 in four of them. He jumped on the scene last season, finishing T-18th at the Wells Fargo and followed it up with a 2nd place finish at the Rocket Mortgage.

He has two rounds over 72 throughout his career so far, due to his accuracy at hitting both the fairway and the green. Through just four events this year, he is sitting 26th in driving accuracy and 25th in GIR%.

Matt Every – 110/1

Last time Every came to the Houston Open, he was able to play well all week, good enough for a T-8th finish. He is also coming off of a T-18th finish at the Shriners, meaning there is a nice mix of recent success and course familiarity for Every.

Yes, the sample size is small, but Every is crushing it in SG on approaching the green. He currently ranks 2nd there. Whether this an outlier or the possibility of him having adjusted his game, I like it to continue this week, getting him another top ten finish.

Best of luck to everyone this week at the Houston Open, whether you are a sleeper or not.