Farmers Insurance Open: Sleeper Candidates at Torrey Pines

There is a lot of talent this week at the Farmers Insurance Open. Let’s take a look at some of the golfers taking a backseat this week, and find some sleeper candidates at Torrey Pines.

Every week it seems like the members of the PGA Tour prove that it’s possible for anyone to win. Take a look at last week’s winner, Andrew Landry. He was 200-1 (+20000) to win. There were some other sleeper candidates that populated the top of the leaderboard, including Bud Cauley (+12500), Sepp Straka (+30000), and my pick last week, Sam Burns (+50000). They finished T-4th, T-4th, and T-6th, respectively. Can it continue at the Farmers Insurance Open?

It’s going to be a bit difficult with the strength of the field. With that strength, we have great value all over the field. Burns will lead into the picks from last week, as he did the best of any of the sleeper candidates at The American Express. If you were able to get him on a top-ten bet, you likely are enjoying your wallet this week. Here are results for all the picks from last week.

• Chez Reavie: MC (71-70-67): Missed by one shot, and was hurt by a double in Friday’s round.
• Daniel Berger: T-29th (-14): Very consistent, shooting 69-68-69-68
• Nate Lashley: WD (77): He withdrew due to a sore wrist after the opening round.
• Talor Gooch: T-17th (-16):
• Sam Burns: T-6th (-19): He started with 71, and then had a blistering finish of 68-67-63.

There are a lot of big names this week, which leads to some great golfers who fall below the cutoff line of +5000 for being considered a sleeper candidate. Sorry Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel, and Francesco Molinari.

Let’s get to it. Here are some sleeper candidates to watch who could make a run at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Jason Kokrak: +6500

With all the first-time winners on Tour over the last 18 months, it is surprising to see that Kokrak has yet to join the group. 14 top 25’s last year, five top tens and a runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship show that he is right on the edge of getting his first PGA Tour win. He has been playing good this year, finishing T-8th at the WGC-HSBC Champions, and then T-2nd at the unofficial QBE Shootout.

Bud Cauley: +8000

Like Kokrak, Cauley still doesn’t have a PGA Tour win. He has been close twice this year already, finishing T-9th at the Houston Open, and following it with a T-4th at the American Express last week. If you aren’t comfortable with picking Cauley to win, you can get a good value on a top-five finish at +1600. He finished T-13th last year at the Farmers Insurance Open, and it could’ve been much better. A third-round 74 derailed his chances. If he shoots 70 instead, he finishes T-5th.

Joel Dahmen: +10000

Continuing the trend, Dahmen makes it three-for-three on golfers in this article without a PGA Tour win. He’s been playing well this year, as his top three finishes are T-9th, T-6th, and T-12th. Dahmen finished one shot better than Cauley last year, shooting -12 to finish T-9th. If you believe, as I do, that Dahmen is one the cusp on that first win, he makes a good play as a sleeper candidate this week. He has great value as a top-five pick also, coming in at +2600.

Talor Gooch: +10000

Yes, I picked him last week. I’m picking him again this week due to the same reasoning for last week’s selection. Gooch played quite well at the Farmers Insurance Open last year, finishing T-3rd. Coming off of a strong week last week, paired with a good course history, I like him once again this week. This time around, it’s to finish in the top ten, which you can find at around +850.

Scott Brown: +32000

For nearly a decade, Brown has quietly been a consistent player on the PGA Tour. He only has one win, coming back in 2013, but had made over $1 million on tour each year from 2013-2018. He missed out on the mark last year by $543. Brown played well here last year, finishing T-9th. I think he does so again, which you can get for around +3100. He played well earlier this year at the RSM, finishing T-14th, and gets back to that form after two missed cuts at the Sony Open and American Express.

If there are any long shots you think I missed, let me know. Best of luck to everyone this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.