The 2020 virtual Masters: The 10 statistical favorites

Welcome to the virtual Masters. All the entrants have won the event during its storied history. Statistically, these are the most likely to win this week’s virtual Masters

We introduced you to the event that was going to be held this week, the Virtual Masters. In our virtual all-time Masters tournament, 10 players stand apart from the rest of the 52-player field.

Those 10, nine of them multiple champions, have a combined 31 Green Jackets they accrued during every decade of the tournament’s existence. Most are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, and those few who aren’t almost certainly will be eventually.

When the champion of our virtual Masters dons his latest Green Jacket Sunday, it is likely – not certain but likely – to come from among the ranks of these 10.

The standard deviation of their average performance during their 10-year peak period ranges from a low of -1.25 to a best of just under two standard deviations superior to their contemporaries. No wonder they won so often.

One of the striking aspects of this most elite group is that although The Masters is today recognized as a world golfing event – 14 non-Americans have won 21 times – the top of the tournament’s pecking order has a distinctly Yankee feel to it. Of the 10 players who present the most dominating Masters profiles, nine are from the United States.

They also comprise the game’s great rivalries. Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus are among these 10 virtual favorites, as are Palmer and Gary Player, Nicklaus and Tom Watson, Ben Hogan and Sam Snead, and Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

That raises one other intriguing possible finish to this virtual tournament: it could resolve itself down to a battle of rivals who actually contested one or more Masters finishes in their lifetimes.

In reviewing the data underscoring these ratings, you may be struck by the competitiveness of these top 10. The standard deviations of six of the 10 are virtually identical, ranging between -1.54 and -1.556 standard deviations…that’s an infinitesimally small margin of difference.

That small margin of distinction increases the potential for volatility in the final results.

Here’s a more detailed look at the pre-tournament credentials of these 10 tournament favorites. For each, the introductory material includes the year(s) of their title(s), the 10-year period of their peak performance at the tournament – that’s the span on which their rating is based – and the standard deviation of their average performance during that peak. They are presented in the mathematical order of likelihood of contention.