2020 Virtual U.S. Open: The favorites to win at Winged Foot
By Bill Felber
Tiger Woods, 2000, 2002, 2008 (1999-2008), -1.50
Between 1999 and 2008, Woods won all three of his Open championships, finishing second twice and third once. Measured by the standard deviation of his performance relative to the field, his 15-stroke win at Pebble Beach in 2000 – measuring -4.34 – is simply the greatest single effort in the history of major championship golf.
That ability to dominate became a Woods trademark. His 2002 victory at Bethpage State Park came by three strokes over Phil Mickelson, amounting to 2.77 standard deviations ahead of the field. It equaled the 12th most dominant showing in Open history. When he beat Rocco Mediate for a third championship in 2008, his standard deviation only reached -2.14… but of course, he was playing on a fractured leg.
Woods made two memorable runs at another Open title, both of them at Pinehurst. In 1999 he tied Vijay Singh for third, two strokes behind Payne Stewart. Six years later he played consistently but never could catch surprise champion Michael Campbell, whose closing 69 matched Woods and enabled Campbell to maintain his two-stroke lead.
Woods’ average would be better but for one of his more spectacular failures. One month after the death of his father, an emotionally drained Tiger missed the cut at Winged Foot, the first such failure in a Major of his professional career.
But for that single performance millstone, Woods’ rating for this event would improve from -1.50 to -1.97, and he would rank as a virtual co-favorite with Hogan.