Houston Open 2020: Preview and Betting Picks at Memorial Park

Memorial Park Golf Course host’s this year’s Houston Open for the first time since 1963 with the 2020 Masters on the horizon.

This week sees the PGA Tour make one final stop for the Houston Open as excitement for this year’s Masters is building with the event now just a week out.  For many years this week’s tournament was held prior to the Masters and PGA professionals would use it as a tune-up with course officials often setting the course up to replicate conditions at the years first major.

The reshuffling of the 2020 PGA schedule has meant that for just this year the event in the Lone Star State will once again be played before one of Golf’s biggest occasions. There is some uncertainty as to how this week’s course will be set up but regardless some of the worlds best will make one last start before the final major on the crazy 2020 PGA calendar.

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Six of the world’s top twenty will tee off this week in Houston with both Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott returning to action following positive COVID-19 test results in recent weeks.  They are joined by the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Hideki Matsuyama amongst others.

This week’s tournament will also see fans in attendance on US soil for the first time since March after some 500 fans were present at a PGA event for the first time last week in Bermuda.

The Course

Memorial Park Golf Course is a municipal course near downtown Houston that opened in 1936 and hasn’t hosted a PGA event since 1963. The course was redesigned last year by Tom Doak with the help of Brooks Koepka.  This week’s event will play as a Par 72 measuring out at over 7400 yards.

The redesigned course features five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s including several that stretch out beyond 200 plus yards. There are also several Par 4’s that sit in the 450-500 yard range. One of the unique features of this course is the limited amount of bunkers that actually come into play, instead, the course features limited amounts of water throughout and tricky slopes and run-off areas specifically on and around the greens.

Golfers will need to be accurate with their approaches this week and have a solid around the green game with the ability to get up and down on these tricky Bermuda greens.  Long hitters should be able to take advantage of the many Par 5’s and shorter Par 4’s that come into play this week so I’ll be targeting those that are strong off the tee. With several of the Par 3’s stretching beyond 200 yards the ability to hit approaches well from the 150-200 yard range will also be of importance this week.

Favorites and betting selections at the Houston Open

Odds used in this article can be found at popular online betting sites, for more information on some of the best sportsbooks available locally to you, check out The Action Network

This week I’ll be looking at recent-form with no course history available and using a statistical model that blends what I believe to be the most important strokes gained stats at this week’s event to help me with my selections.

Bryan Mears of The Action Network wrote an excellent article that explains how strokes gained metrics can be used to assist with both betting and daily fantasy when it comes to PGA golf and I would encourage you to check that out if you have not done so already.

If you are interested in specific stats for this week and a more in-depth look at that, you should check out Matthew Vincenzi’s excellent preview.

World number one Dustin Johnson +700 opens up as the clear favorite for this week and is followed by Tony Finau +1800, Tyrrell Hatton +1800, and Russell Henley +1800 all as co-second favorites. There is a lot of unknown about both the event this week and what players are here to simply tune up their game in preparation for next week so I’m hesitant to begin the card with someone at DJ’s number.

Hatton has been playing great recently and Henley is a former winner of this event albeit on a different course, it’s Tony Finau +1800 however who I’ll start this week’s card with. It’s tough to begin the card so close to the top of the board in a week like this but I really like the shape of Finau’s game coming into this week.

Tony showed no signs of rust in his last start as he made his return to action with an 11th at the ZOZO, this coming after a few weeks off that where COVID related.  Finau is second in my stats model for the week over the past 24 rounds and he has gained with his approaches in his previous two starts on Tour.

The talented golfer is ranked inside the top 25 in every statistical category including strokes gained around the green where he is 15th amongst the field.  Finau crushes his approach shots from beyond 200 yards ranking 1st in that category.  For Tony, it will come down to the putter this week as it often does, but after gaining strokes with the flat stick his last two times out I’ll chance that he finds the touch on the greens and challenges for the win this week.

After beginning the card with Finau I will need to drop further down the board with my next selection and ill do so by taking Si Woo Kim +5500 next. Kim was excellent his last time out gaining strokes across the board including over five with his irons and if it wasn’t for a cold putter would have surely been near the top of the leaderboard at the CJ Cup.

Si Woo comes into this week top 30 in my stats model, this includes ranking first in the field in strokes gained around the green over his last 24 rounds. The South Korean is another who I hope finds something on the greens this week, if he does he can compete in Texas.

My next selection will be a popular pick this week in the form of Sam Burns +1000. Sam is excellent on Bermuda greens and he excels off the tee as well.  Burns is top 20 in my model this week this includes ranking second in the field in strokes gained off the tee.  Sam has struggled with his irons recently but over his previous 24 rounds ranks top 25 with his approach shots from beyond 200 yards.

I’ll take a chance that the LSU product strikes the ball well this week and does damage on the greens with his putter on his way to the top of the board.

Completing this week’s card ill back Keith Mitchell +22500, who absolutely crushes it from off the tee. Mitchell has struggled with form recently but he rates out top 30 in the field from both strokes gained off the tee and approach shots from the key 200 plus yard range.  Keith tends to be a much better putter on Bermuda greens and at this price, I’m more than willing to back him this week in Houston.

Best of luck this week with all your bets at the Houston Open.