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The dollars and cents behind Streb’s winning shot

By Bill Felber

ST SIMONS ISLAND, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 22: Robert Streb of the United States plays his second shot on the 18th hole during the final round of The RSM Classic at the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club on November 22, 2020 in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
ST SIMONS ISLAND, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 22: Robert Streb of the United States plays his second shot on the 18th hole during the final round of The RSM Classic at the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club on November 22, 2020 in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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The wedge struck by Robert Streb within inches of the flag in Sunday’s RSM playoff will end up being worth millions to him

On the second hole of his playoff with Kevin Kisner Sunday for the RSM Championship, Robert Streb stiffed a 120 wedge from the left rough to within inches of the flag. It was the shot that effectively finished off Kevin Kisner and finally sealed the playoff victory.

Purely on a dollars and cents basis, what was the value of that shot?

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The immediate calculation is: $468,600. That’s the difference between Streb’s $1.188 million winner’s check and the $719,400 runner-up check that went to Kisner.

But that’s not how they do math on Tour. Here’s the rest of the equation.

By winning, Streb ensured himself a short-term playing future that would have evaporated had he not won the playoff. Most notably, it gave him automatic entry to any regular PGA Tour event – that is, anything outside the WGC events, the Majors and the FedEx Cup events – for two seasons.

While it’s impossible to precisely state the difference that amounts to, we can estimate it by looking at Streb’s last victory — at the same event in 2014. Over the ensuing two seasons, he played 57 times and amassed nearly $5 million in winnings. Outside that two-season window, he has averaged about $1.6 million per two-season block.

That’s about a $3.4 million difference. Part of that difference — about a half million — represents money won by Streb in upper-tier events we will account for separately. So we’ll deduct those projected winnings by that half million to avoid double dipping. By PGA Tour math, that stiffed wedge has still increased in value to something on the order of $3.35 million.

And we’re nowhere near done. Streb also wins entry into January’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. That no-cut event pays its last-place finisher $64,000. Streb hasn’t qualified since 2015. If he goes mid-pack this coming January, the payout increases to $90,000. The winner’s share is obviously much, much higher, but let’s not get carried away.

The shot’s value is now between $2.96 million and $3.8 million.

Then there’s the Masters in April. The victory puts Streb in that as well. He played in the 2015 and 2016 events, and missed the cut both times. Even those who miss the cut walk off with $10,000 expense money; a mid-pack finish should net about $75,000.

Going forward, that raises the value of Streb’s winning shot to between $2.97 million and a fraction over $4.5 million. And if by some chance he has a hot week in Augusta, he would walk away with a lot more there, as well.

His victory also gives Streb automatic entry into both the Players and PGA. Neither has been on Streb’s schedule since 2017 (PGA) and 2018 (Players), but they will be next year. Neither carries a minimum guarantee, but the Players offers $60,000 and the PGA $30,000 for even a middling finish. Estimate a combined $90,000 and run the value of his winning shot at Sea Island to between $2.97 million and about $5.5 million.

Finally there are the various season-ending FedEx Cup events. He hasn’t made the season’s top 125 since 2017.  Streb’s win doesn’t literally qualify him for that big-dollar series in 2021, but as a practical matter the 500 points he secured with the victory guarantee him passage into at least the Northern Trust and the BMW.

Like the Players and PGA, the Northern does not carry with it a guarantee. But it does pay around $40,000 to even a top-40 finish. The minimum at the BMW, a no-cut event, is close to $20,000, with close to $50,000 going to even a mid-pack finish.

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In sum, that brings the actual cash value of that shot Streb hit Sunday to somewhere between $3.5 million on the low end and nearly $6.5 million. And that higher figure assumes Streb fails to convert any of his additional appearances into something approaching contention, in which case that wedge could be worth a lot more.

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