The American Express: Recent stats point towards Russell Henley

This is a breakdown for The 2021 American Express tournament on the PGA Tour. I will talk about the past winners, stats I feel fitting for the course, players I like, and some  plays that I will consider targeting. I play DraftKings which is how I will word the information, but the same players can be applied on FanDuel.

 

Past 3 Winners

2020: Andrew Landry (-26)

2019: Adam Long (-26)

2018: Jon Rahm (-22) Playoff with Andrew Landry

 

The Stats: These are what I believe the keys stats will be for this tournament

Strokes Gained: Approach, Par 3 Scoring Average, Hit Fairway Percentage, Stroke Gained: Total

 

Players I like: I have not officially decided yet, but for the time being I am going to structure this with three guys. One who has great course history, one who has the recent stats for this course, and one who has some good recent form.

 

Andrew Landry (150/1 or +15000) / ($7,000 on DK)

Last 3 finishes at The AMEX: 1st, 28th, 2nd (Playoff with Rahm)

Last 3 finishes on tour: CUT, 38th, 4th

Strokes Gained Approach in 2021 season: 123rd

Par 3 Scoring Average in 2021 season: 145th

Hit Fairway Percentage in 2021 season: 14th

Strokes Gained Total in 2021 season: 177th

His recent stats are not the best fitting for this course, but his course history is near impossible to ignore. He has been on the decline in recent form, but I love a bounce back at a familiar course where he is the defender. He is also at a cheap price of $7,000 which helps you fit some of the more expensive players. At that price, he basically needs to make the cut and a little more to be worth the fantasy play.

 

Russell Henley (33/1 or +3300) / ($9,000 on DK)

Last 3 finishes at The AMEX: CUT, CUT, DNP

Last 3 finishes on tour: 11th, CUT, 30th

Strokes Gained Approach in 2021 season: 7th

Par 3 Scoring Average in 2021 season: 15th

Hit Fairway Percentage in 2021 season: 10th

Stokes Gained Total in 2021 season: 9th

I am loving Russell Henley and it is not because of his course history (which is bad the past two years). I like him because the stars seem to align with the stats that I like. He fits this course perfectly and maybe missing the cut in the past two years will help him become lower owned in fantasy. He also is an expensive $9,000 which is insane for him. I will play him because of the recent stats and a gut feeling of low ownership that can come with high upside.

 

Patton Kizzire  (66/1 or +6600) / ($8,400 on DK)

Last 3 finishes at The AMEX: CUT, CUT, T42

Last 3 finishes on tour: 7th, 32nd, 10th

Strokes Gained Approach in 2021 season: 160th

Par 3 Scoring Average in 2021 season: 34th

Hit Fairway Percentage in 2021 season: 165th

Strokes Gained Total in 2021 season: 36th

I like Kizzire’s recent form and I don’t see much talk about him at all. He is going to be one that is over looked and has been playing incredible. He has been playing like a top 15 player in the world. He last outing consisted of three low rounds (64-69-65-64 at the Sony Open in Hawaii) which lead to a seventh place finish. His salary went up from last week to $8,400, but with his recent results I think he looks like a 9K guy.

 

Other players I like on DraftKings:

Patrick Reed ($10,200)

Sam Burns ($8,300)

Joel Dahmen ($7,500)

Michael Thompson ($7,100)

Jim Herman ($6,700)