Measuring Greatness of Tiger Woods, by Numbers
By Bill Felber
Peak greatness
For this measurement, I have taken the average standard deviation from the field average of a player’s ten best showings in recognized Major championships within a period of five consecutive seasons of the player’s career.
The particulars are, to a degree, arbitrary. One could as easily use a seven-year or 10-year peak, or possibly go as short as three seasons. One could include all performances within the selected time period. My criteria seem reasonable to me.
By that standard, Woods’ peak score – the average of his 10 best standard deviations in Majors over a five-season period, measures 2.68. He achieved that between 1998 and 2002.
For those unfamiliar with the concept of standard deviation, an average showing 2.68 standard deviations better than the norm of one’s peers is way, way out on the edge of the bell. It is in fact the best peak performance in the game’s history, about 14 percent better than the 2.38 peak performance of Jack Nicklaus during his prime, 1971 through 1975.
Considering men only, the others among the top 10 for peak performance are: 3. Arnold Palmer (1960-64), 2.32; 4. Tom Watson (1977-81) and James Braid (1901-1910), both 2.18; 6. Bobby Jones (1926-30) and Walter Hagen (1923-27), both 2.11; 8. Sam Snead (1947-51), 2.10; 9. Ben Hogan (1950-54) and Phil Mickelson (2001-05), both 2.06.
Succinctly, for peak performance there is as great a gap between Woods in first place and Nicklaus in second as there is between Nicklaus and Byron Nelson and Jordan Spieth, both 2.02, back in 14th place.
Even if you consider women – and there’s no statistical reason not to – Woods remains a clear No. 1. The top female of all time for peak performance is Annika Sorenstam, who between 2002 and 2006 achieved a peak rating of 2.49.