2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Tournament preview and picks
Patrick Reed +1800
If anyone can break the European stronghold on this event in recent times it’s Reed. Patrick had a poor Sunday last week especially with his wild off-the-tee game, he also uncharacteristically struggled with the short game and missed a number of short putts.
Despite all of that Patrick posted solid numbers with his approach play for the week and if he can find his touch around and on the greens again this week, as I suspect he can, then he can do very well here. Captain America was 15th at Bay Hill last year and he also had a 7th at this event a couple of years ago as well.
Reed won the Farmers this year, and he has also had success at Wentworth in the past including a 3rd place finish at last year’s BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour. He has been playing well to start 2021 and if he can straighten out the driver a bit this week he could very well win at Arnie’s place.
I am going to go back to the Euro side with my next pick and side with somebody who not only has done well here in the past but has been playing very well recently in Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500.
Fitzpatrick has gone 11th, 5th, 17th, MC, 1st in his last five starts with the lone missed cut coming in his first event to start 2021 and right after his win at the DP World Tour Championship to close out 2020. Matthew has an excellent history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as well with two top 10 finishes in his last three starts at Bay Hill.
The Englishman had a poor Sunday with his Irons on a difficult course last week but I suspect he rebounds at a place he loves this week and once again finds himself in contention
Sam Burns +4500 will be my next addition to the card this week and I’ll be hoping that he can put his Sunday mishap at the Genesis behind him this week. Burns has been playing excellent golf in 2021 so far and his approach numbers have been superb.
While he does not have a result that jumps off the page just yet he has made the cut in every start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational so far, including a 36th in difficult conditions last year. The Louisiana State University product is historically an excellent putter on Bermuda greens as well and is one of the longer hitters off the tee as well.
I’ll finish the card with a couple of shots at longer odd’s this week in Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000 and Alex Noren +11000 both of whom I’ll be looking to add in the top 10 and 20 markets this week as well.
Christiaan was 18th on his debut here last year and he has started 2021 with some decent results including a 32nd at last week’s WGC event. The South African won the SA Open last year on another course that has seen some comparable crossovers with Bay Hill as well.
Noren comes into this week after a 12th place finish at the Genesis in his last start when he gained strokes in every stats category for the week. The Swede showed some flashes at Torrey Pines back at the end of January and he has also done well at Wentworth in the past including winning the BMW Championship back in 2017 and placing 3rd the following year.
It’s been a mixed run of results at Bay Hill in the past, but it is a course that he should enjoy if you evaluate his performances on similar tracks.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Card
Patrick Reed +1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500
Sam Burns +4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000 (with top 10, top 20)
Alex Noren +11000 (with top 10, top 20)