If the Match Play was medal play

Mar 26, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Tommy Fleetwood celebrates with his caddie on #18 after winning the match against Bryson DeChambeau on the third day of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament at Austin Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Tommy Fleetwood celebrates with his caddie on #18 after winning the match against Bryson DeChambeau on the third day of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament at Austin Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports /
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Carlos Ortiz and Brian Harman, who played what amounted to an elimination match Friday. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Carlos Ortiz and Brian Harman, who played what amounted to an elimination match Friday. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The top 10

Obviously a precise medal play accounting of a match play event can’t be calculated. Not all matches go the full 18 holes, some holes are conceded, and many putts that, at least in theory, might be missed are also given.

Still, the data base is deep enough that we can arrive at some pretty reliable estimates of what a top 10 would look like if this event was the Dell Technologies Medal Play rather than match play.

Based on those best estimates, here is what the  top 10 would look like entering a theoretical fourth and final round Saturday:

Pos.         Player                                   Scores                   To par

1              Brian Harman                    65-66-66-197      -17

2              Patrick Cantlay                  63-63-71-200      -14

2              Dustin Johnson                 66-67-67-200      -14

2              Robert Macintyre             65-67-68-200      -14

2              Daniel Berger                     66-66-64-200      -14

6              Matt Kuchar                       64-72-65-201      -13

6              Russell Henley                  69-66-66-201      -13

8              Carlos Ortiz                        67-66-71-204      -10

9              Mackenzie Hughes          69-66-69-204      -10

9              Webb Simpson                 64-71-69-204      -10

9              Adam Long                         68-68-68-204      -10

How many of those 11 top 10s survived to the weekend’s bracket play? The answer is just four. Harman defeated Cantlay in a playoff, MacIntyre survived despite winning just one of his three matches, Kuchar emerged when co-favorite Justin Thomas badly under-performed, and Hughes won what turned out to be possibly the weakest-performing bracket.

Several of the best performers were victimized by the draw. Johnson, the event’s overall top seed, played well as the standings above illustrate. But MacIntyre and Long both landed in his group. And when Johnson managed to lose 1-up to a previously winless Kevin Na, despite out-scoring Na 67-69 on a medal play basis, MacIntyre slid past him.