If the Match Play was medal play

Mar 26, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Tommy Fleetwood celebrates with his caddie on #18 after winning the match against Bryson DeChambeau on the third day of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament at Austin Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Tommy Fleetwood celebrates with his caddie on #18 after winning the match against Bryson DeChambeau on the third day of the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament at Austin Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports /
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Matt Kuchar was one of the best performers during group play. But that does not make him a favorite in bracket play. Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Kuchar was one of the best performers during group play. But that does not make him a favorite in bracket play. Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports /

Weekend mismatches

Not that it means anything in stroke play, but only one of the eight first round matches Saturday pits players who were close to competitive with one another during the week.

Here are the pairings, along with the projected three-round stroke play scores of the 16 survivors. In only one match is the difference smaller than five strokes; in two of the matches it’s double digits.

  • Matt Kuchar, 200, vs. Jordan Spieth, 210. Margin: Kuchar 10 strokes.
  • Brian Harman, 197 vs Bubba Watson, 208. Margin: Harman 11 strokes.
  • Ian Poulter, 205, vs. Scottie Scheffler, 212. Margin: Poulter seven strokes.
  • Jon Rahm, 207, vs. Erik Van Rooyen, 213. Margin: Rahm six strokes.
  • Kevin Streelman, 210 vs Billy Horschel, 212. Margin: Streelman two strokes.
  • Dylan Fritelli, 206 vs Tommy Fleetwood, 213. Margin: Fritelli seven strokes.
  • Mackenzie Hughes, 204, vs Sergio Garcia, 209. Margin: Hughes five strokes.
  • Robert MacIntyre, 200 vs Victor Perez, 207. Margin: MacIntyre seven strokes.

I’d like to be able to report that the above information is actually meaningful. But since everybody begins on an even basis Saturday morning and since any match between front-line PGA Tour pros is definitionally a crapshoot, don’t bet on it.

Still, chalk has meant so little through the first three rounds that it’s tempting to go for a full upend and expect a Van Rooyen-Fleetwood final. They’ve gotten this far on next to nothing; who’s to say they can’t win four more matches?

The one guy you wouldn’t want to be is Harman. By all measures he’s played the best this week…as if that meant anything.