Best Bets: The 2021 Masters

Remember when Dustin Johnson won the green jacket at the Masters? Yeah, that was only five months ago. Since November, a lot has changed.

Back then, the grass was stiffer, the ball wasn’t traveling as far due to the winter weather (if you want to call 65 degrees in Georgia “winter” conditions), and of course the obvious, there were no swaths of fans.

But as the April azaleas bloom, patrons have found their way back to Augusta, and with them they bring a sign of normalcy to the first major with fans since July of 2019 when Royal Portrush hosted The Open.

The field this year is deep with three amateurs, 18 past champions, including the ageless Berhard Langer, and a handful of young guns and veterans looking for their first green jacket, but the fans will play a big factor, especially into the weekend.

For those whose Masters debut came in 2020, the patrons provide an added twist to the already difficult course. For veterans, it very well may help or deter their play depending on how their form has been since the transition away from fans in March of last season.

Players will hear roars, however faint, when Dustin Johnson knocks down a 20-foot eagle putt, they’ll also hear groans when Bryson misses a seven-footer for par.

A lot can happen in four days, especially at Augusta, a course that may not be the most difficult in terms of terrain or rough, but for its subtle complexities. Regardless, a winner must rise supreme… Here are my picks for who you should bet on this weekend.

Who NOT to pick: Bryson DeChambeau (+1100 to win)

I am a big fan of Bryson DeChambeau. I love his weird scientist mentality with single shaft-sized clubs and extra-large grips. I find it intriguing he dips his golf balls in epsom salt to determine its performance.

However, no matter how much I like DeChambeau, I don’t like him at the Masters.

First off, Bryson’s biggest draw is his booming swing. He can drive balls a country mile, the only problem is they do not always go straight, a prime example being his first three tee shots at last year’s Masters where he found more pine straw and provisional shots than he did birdies.

While yes, his power swing is an impressive feat allowing him to club down on just about every hole and have a tremendous advantage in the rough, the Masters has virtually no rough anyhow.

Back in November I said because of the colder conditions, he’d have an advantage with longer drives because the grass in November didn’t allow balls to travel far on impact. Once again, his drives landing in the woods canceled out his opportunities.

Another issue for DeChambeau at Augusta is the rules. A big reason for DeChambeau’s win at Winged Foot in September was his green-reading book, an equipment piece not allowed at Augusta. Golf statistics guru Justin Ray noted that he ranks 70th in strokes gained putting among 76 golfers with ten or more rounds since his debut in 2016. Not pretty.

Put all of this together, and there is the makings of another trip down Magnolia Lane with no jacket in hand. Don’t make the same mistake I made last year.

To Make the Cut: Tyler Strafaci (+325)

Remember Andy Ogletree? The kid from Georgia Tech who had a better four days at Augusta than Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth and Colin Morikawa combined?

He was the 2019 US Amateur Champion. Tyler Strafaci was his teammate. Not only that, but Strafaci won the US Amateur in 2020.

Compared to Ogletree, the resumes are close to identical. Now match that up with the fact that both were coached by Bruce Heppler, the same man who coached current professionals Cameron Tringale and Matt Kuchar, the latter of whom also won a US Amateur and finished even par in his first Masters in 1998. This story sounds juicy already.

As a cherry on the sundae, Strafaci’s grandfather Frank Sr. was a participant at the Masters. After winning the 1935 US Amateur Publinx, Frank Strafaci, Sr. played Augusta in 1938. While he played a few over par, Frank Sr. withdrew from the tournament to pursue other play in tournaments in order to qualify for that years Walker Cup team. While Frank’s time at Augusta wasn’t a terrific one, Tyler plans to stay through Sunday, and who knows, maybe some family magic will guide him.

Between the resume, the pedigree from Georgia Tech, his grandfather and being ranked 11th in the World Amateur Golf rankings, I definitely see Strafaci making the cut.

To Finish Top 20: Justin Rose (+175)

Over the last six years, only Jordan Speith has more birdies than Justin Rose at the Masters. Rose also has the most birdies per round at Augusta since 2016 (4.7).

While his past two Masters have seen results at 23rd (2020) and 66th (2019), Rose has put up nine top-20 finishes since his Masters debut in 2003, five of those finishing top ten.

Past winners at Augusta have made their bread on the greens, and Rose’s short game is sublime.

Augusta is notorious for forcing balls into perfect windows across the course, and while his long irons and his driver are a bit behind the top players in the field, his precision is what gets him in the conversation every single year.

I said it earlier, the fans are going to play a factor this weekend. A lot of veterans, like Rose, are going to thrive. The energy will make every swing more energized, every putt more important, and if Rose can stay as hot on the greens as he has been over his career, the fans can definitely push him up those three spots to a top 20 finish, especially if it means an eagle or two go his way.

Justin Rose feels like a great pick to crack the top 20 for the tenth time in his career. He’s never won a green jacket, but the potential is there.

To Finish Top 10: Jordan Speith (-120)

My heart is screaming no, but my mind says yes. Prior to this past weekend at Valero, Jordan Speith had not won a tournament since 2017. Not a major, a tournament.

But the run Speith is on can’t be ignored. A top five finish in Phoenix, Pebble Beach, and Bay Hill, plus a top 15 finish at Riviera are all huge for his morale and momentum. Now pair the momentum with this thought:

Fans are back, and Speith had a depressing 2020 with no fans. Between 2017 and 2019, hen it comes to playing in major tournaments, Speith has had a top 10 finish in 4/12 tournaments.

Regardless of his poor play in 2020 Speith is still a fan favorite and will command a respectable crowd, especially with Tiger Woods not taking part in the tournament.

Oh, and remember that Justin Rose stat? Speith is second to Rose in birdies per round at the same 4.7 clip, and like I said with Rose, drive for show, putt for dough.

He may be the most volatile player on the planet next to Rickie Fowler to bet on, but the writing is on the wall. Give me Jordan Speith as a top 10 finisher at Augusta.

To Finish Top 5: Lee Westwood (+550)

After finishing second in consecutive weekends, Lee Westwood was spotted playing at Augusta with his son Sam. 54 holes later he missed the cut that weekend at the Honda Classic. “I’m a bit tired,” he told Golf.com on Wednesday at PGA National. “I feel a bit drained. My legs are feeling it a little bit.”

The moral of the story here is that Westwood hasn’t played uber competitive golf in two weeks and that his performance at PGA National should be a grain of salt in comparison to what he did at Bay Hill and THE PLAYERS.

2021 has been as kind to Lee Westwood as Santa to a child on Christmas, and those back-to-back second place finishes are exactly what Westwood needed.

This is his 20th career round at the Masters, he’s played the course recently, he’s read the greens, he’s seen more than other pros who just arrived at Augusta this past weekend.

To boot, his caddy has been the talk of the town this week. Usually Westwood brings along his fiancé Helen, but this week, Sam takes the bag. Albeit he’s 19, he’s still played plenty with dad, and he’s had a handful of days to prepare.

The 47-year-old Westwood has never won a Masters, but came close in 2010 and 2016 finishing second, why not continue the great form with a top five finish at Augusta?

To Win it All: Justin Thomas (+1200)

Since his Masters debut in 2016, Justin Thomas has jumped considerably every year.

He has been as consistent as anyone outside of Lee Westwood and Jordan Speith this season finishing top-15 in every tournament except for the Genesis at Riviera, a course where he traditionally struggles.

But recent great results are only a fraction of the pie. Like an NFL quarterback who makes his best throws when under pressure, Thomas thrives when he has a chip on his shoulder. Since his debut, Thomas has nine top 10 finishes after missing the cut the week before. Last week, he got knocked out of the WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play early. He’s got something to prove, and what better stage than Augusta.

Regardless of the WGC knockout, JT is coming off a win at THE PLAYERS, so he’s hot and ready to go. Plus, that new hooking drive he deployed at Sawgrass may give him an added advantage on the doglegs at hole No. 1, 2, 5, & 18.

He’s first in strokes gained at approach and greens in regulation over the past three years at Augusta. This is his primed chance to win it all.