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10 Things to Know about the Valspar Championship

By Josh Mullenix

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SOUTH CAROLINA - APRIL 16: Paul Casey of England plays his shot from the ninth tee during the second round of the RBC Heritage on April 16, 2021 at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SOUTH CAROLINA - APRIL 16: Paul Casey of England plays his shot from the ninth tee during the second round of the RBC Heritage on April 16, 2021 at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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The PGA Tour is staying in the southeast as it heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook for the Valspar Championship. Here are 10 things you need to know before the tournament begins in Tampa on Thursday morning.

1. It’s been four calendar years since someone not named Paul Casey won the Valspar Championship.

Back-to-back victories for the Englishman at Innisbrook In 2018 & 2019, combined with the pandemic canceling this event in 2020 means that it has been 48 months since someone other than Casey won the Valspar. Canadian Adam Hadwin beat Patrick Cantlay by one in 2017. Casey did it with ball striking in 2019 finishing first in SG: tee-to-green and a great putting week in 2018 finishing T-1 in total putts. He carded a final round 65 in 2018 to come from 11th to first on Sunday.

Casey is trying to win the same event in three consecutive appearances for the ninth time in PGA Tour history, courtesy of Justin Ray on Twitter. Tiger Woods is responsible for six of those instances.

2. The best performers not named Paul Casey are:

Only six other players in this week’s field have finished in the top 30 each of the last two years this tournament was contested.

Sam Burns
Louis Oosthuizen
Russell Knox
Zach Johnson
Rory Sabbatini
Jason Kokrak

3. The best performers of recent are not the players with the best average finishes all time.

Of the players with 5+ starts at the Valspar, only Henrick Stenson (29.2), Justin Rose (24.9), Luke Donald (31.2) and Nick Whatney (34.6) have a career average finish of better than 35th.

4. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a ball striker’s golf course.

The last player to win this tournament and finish outside of the top 6 in SG: tee-to-green was Luke Donald in 2012. And only Paul Casey finished outside of the top 5 (2018). Donald was the best putter in the world at that point and finished that week in 2012 first in SG: putting gaining over 2.5 strokes per round on the field.

5. Here are the players in the field that are top 10 on TOUR this year in SG: tee-to-green.

Justin Thomas (4th)
Dustin Johnson (6th)
Viktor Hovland (8th)
Corey Conners (9th)
Keegan Bradley (10th)

6. The Snake Pit is one of the toughest three hole stretches on the PGA Tour.

Very appropriately named for a stretch of holes at a course called the Copperhead, the Snake Pit makes the last three holes of the tournament very interesting. A pair of lengthy par 4’s sandwiching a lengthy par 3 will have the leader holding on for dear life on Sunday. The 16th hole is a 475 yard par 4 that played as the 20th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2018-19 with a scoring average of over 0.3 strokes over par. The 17th is a 200-yard par 3 protected by four bunkers and the closing hole is a 440-yard par 4 that also plays well over par. Paul Casey played the Snake Pit in 1-over for the entire week in 2019.

7. Par 5’s are really the only places to make birdies at the Copperhead course.

The Copperhead course is very much a “survive the par 3s and par 4s and make birdies on the par 5s” kind of course. In 2019, Paul Casey was an impressive 15-under on the par 5s while he was a combined 7-over on the course’s shorter holes. Two years ago, only five players in the entire field finished under par on the par 4s and 15 players accomplished that feat on the par 3s. Birdies are hard to come by at Innisbrook and almost all of them come from the par 5s.

8. Due to the cancellation of the 2020 Valspar, the group of first timers at this tournament is very good.

Viktor Hovland, Cameron Champ and Scottie Scheffler are all making their first appearance at the Valspar. Scheffler is seeking his first win on the PGA Tour while Hovland and Champ are looking for No. 3. The last player to win the Valspar on his first try was Gary Woodland in 2011.

9. Valspar Championship favorites (according to DraftKings):

Justin Thomas (+1000)
Dustin Johnson (+1100)
Corey Conners (+1800)
Patrick Reed (+1800)
Paul Casey (+2200)

10. The winner is…

Justin Rose. Apart from a missed cut in 2015, Rosey has never finished outside of the top 30 at this event. He’s turned in back-to-back top 11 finishes at the Masters and the Zurich Classic and has been a beautiful ball striker for a long time. Success on this golf course and recent form give Rose a really good chance to be in contention on Sunday.

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