McIlroy, Rahm, Bryson, Louis, DJ: Who Will Win the U.S. Open?

There are 13 people who have a good chance to win the U.S. Open tomorrow. Whether it’s Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa or one of the others who have a less stellar resume, it will come from the top 13. The rest of the list of possible winners includes Xander Schauffele, Mackenzie Hughes, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Matthew Wolff, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Kevin Streelman.

You can almost absolutely count on the winner to come from that group. It would be shocking if one of them didn’t win. In fact, it should come from one of the top eight. But let’s be generous.

The reason is that should the guys at the very top falter — Oosthuizen, Hughes and Henley– there are two absolutely great players close behind: Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson.

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However, five of the Baker’s Dozen – McIlroy, Johnson, Oosthuizen, DeChambeau and Morikawa — have won majors before so they know what’s involved. They have a better shot at carrying home the U.S. Open trophy than someone who has not won one.

Some people are what legendary sports writer Dan Jenkins used to call a mortal lock to win major championships. That would include golfers like Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. But right now, the current great players, near mortal locks, have not been playing up to their usual standards.

Using the current U.S. Open leaderboard, if McIlroy were playing like Rory McIlroy before COVID struck, he would be a mortal lock to win tomorrow. But he’s not.

Johnson would qualify as a semi-mortal lock, just because he’s behind McIlroy in major hardware, but he hasn’t been playing like a world No. 1. lately.

Morikawa, DeChambeau and Oosthuizen have one major each, and so they would be next in line.

The top of the leaderboard, Oosthuizen, Hughes and Henley are four shots ahead of the players at 1-under. But those four shots are more fragile than if the names at the top were Nicklaus and Woods. There’s a reason for that.

This is new territory for Hughes and Henley. They are going to be so nervous their hair will practically be on fire.

Oosthuizen has to be considered a threat to win, but his only major came 11 years ago in the British Open. He got off to a miraculous 10-shot lead, and nobody could catch him. He has no second major, not that there’s anything wrong with that. Of the three at the top, he has more gravitas than the other two.

Next on the leaderboard are McIlroy and DeChambeau at 3-under par. It’s hard to say with conviction that both of them will tank. Really. Sure, it’s possible. It’s also possible that they will get outplayed.

Then there’s Scheffler, Rahm and Wolff, none of whom have won a major. They are at 2-under par. It’s difficult to imagine that Oosthuizen, Hughes, Henley, McIlroy and DeChambeau will all falter. That’s a lot of talent just deciding not to show up on a major championship Sunday. But as a late friend of mine used to say, you can’t measure heart or want-to. One golfer farther down the leaderboard may just play out of his mind and jump over the rest. It could happen.

Then we are left with the 1-unders, Johnson, Morikawa, Schauffele, Bezuidenhout and Streelman. They have to make up four shots and jump over eight guys who are ahead of them. Yes, it’s possible, but it gets into the fairy tale category.

So, before you bet the farm on who will win, just be sure you understand fully the chances of those in the top 13 and who among them is best placed to carry off the U.S. Open trophy Sunday at Torrey Pines.

Only one thing is sure: What started off as not very thrilling, could end up being one of the most exciting U.S. Open finishes in recent memory.

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